Best Sportsbooks US
VA
Plus
Discord
Twitter
Youtube
Facebook
Mail
Reddit

Expected Value Betting Explained

EV (Expected Value) Betting Terms

Welcome to our  expected value betting explained guide. In this guide, we are going to teach you more about how to use this calculated approach to online sports betting.

Expected value betting is something that was seemingly only reserved for the professional sports bettor, but there are more and more people today who are realizing that that does not need to be the case. It's something that anyone can learn if you put the time and effort in. Check out the rest of our guide to learn more.

Read More
header-graphic
Subscribe to PromoGuy and boost your bankroll for free!
Get started now!
or you can also follow us on these channels:
TwitterYoutubeFacebook

What's PromoGuy all about?

Video: Will the 49ers continue to be Matt Stafford’s kryptonite? 🧐 | #sportsbetting #nfl

Will the 49ers continue to be Matt Stafford’s kryptonite? 🧐 | #sportsbetting #nfl

Will the 49ers continue to be Matt Stafford’s k...
Promoguy Youtube – 12/11/2024
Promo Guy
2023-06-08 15:16
Arizona you've got a +EV boost on BetFred 🌵 Fair value: +222 EV: +5.5% Recommended units: 0.6 New users bet $50 and get $111 in bonus bets ➡️ https://t.co/EiqK5Y2WkI https://t.co/V5elg6GUXV
1 1
Read More
🔥 The PromoGuy Promise

🆓 Absolutely Free Picks!

🤑 Proven ROI of over 30%!

📈 Qualified Odds Boosts & Promos

🕵️ Profitable Betsare Waiting for You!

💰 Take Your Bankroll to the Next Level

Pick your Bookie right now!
Bet365
Bet365
4.6/5
BetMGM
BetMGM
4.6/5
FanDuel
FanDuel
4.5/5
Caesars
Caesars
4.5/5

Meet the PromoGuys

Video: Welcome To PromoGuy!

Welcome To PromoGuy!

Subscribe to our picks
100% FOR FREE
Get started now!

Monthly Performance

March ' 23 143 Picks 47 Wins 32.8700 Win % 490.3800 Monthly Net 2,470.83 YTD Net
April ' 23 173 Picks 47 Wins 27.1700 Win % 27.6600 Monthly Net 2,498.49 YTD Net
May ' 23 396 Picks 99 Wins 25.0000 Win % 2135.4500 Monthly Net 4,633.94 YTD Net
See full betting history in the tracker sheet

EV betting meaning and how it works

If you have never heard of the EV betting term then chances are you are asking yourself, how does EV betting work? You can be forgiven for never really delving into this kind of thing, especially if you are only a casual betting fan who is just in it for a bit of fun. However, if you find that you place a number of bets every weekend, or are looking to get involved in matched betting USA, you are already betting a lot more than your average punter. As such, it starts to become far more valuable for you to understand what an EV betting term is and how it can help you.

To have EV betting explained in simple terms, the best way we can describe it is simply the difference between expected probability between the bettor and the sportsbook. A sportsbook formulates odds and spreads for a sporting event based on a number of variables. These variables are considered by every other sportsbook in the US as well, which is why you will find that most of these sites will have very similar odds and spreads for the same events. It is in these minor differences that someone using an expected value term operates.

The slightest difference in expected probability between the bettor and the sportsbook can mean a genuinely valuable bet. It may not be the flashiest way of betting and it may not even be the most entertaining, but it is comfortably the most shrewd way for you to find a winning betting strategy. Knowing when to look for expected value bets on these sites is the tricky part and actually seeing the value in the odds and spreads is where things get tricky. With that said, it is not impossible as plenty of professional bettors use this technique every day. All it takes is some practice, a few guidelines, and some good instincts to find what odds are overvalued or undervalued, and when you should jump at the chance to make your bets.

If you want to get more involved with EV betting, check out our other EV betting products, such as PromoGuy Pick'em and PromoGuy Plus.

Players who should use EV betting

After reading all of that you may now be worrying about whether or not you should even attempt to try and get involved with any EV betting term or practices or just check out the free betting picks today. Well, it's a reasonable thing to concern yourself with.

For the most part, something like expected value is going to go right over the head of someone who has just started sports betting online. This is not something to be ashamed of, it's not exactly the most beginner-friendly way to approach online sports betting, that is for sure. Does that mean you should skip over it entirely? That depends. If you only place the odds and spreads bet every once in a while for the fun of it, then no, you probably don't need expected value betting explained to you.

For those of you who consider themselves to be intermediate bettors or veteran bettors, expected value betting is where you need to cast your eyes to next if you haven't already. This is a betting technique that can net you long-term profits. By putting in the work, whether with an arbitrage finder or not, bettors will definitely notice an increase in their overall success in the long term. While there are never any guarantees of success, even with something like expected value, it's something to consider if you are trying to gain steady growth with your sports betting. Like we said though, the sporting world can be a fickle place where the underdog can topple the champion on any given day, the trick is to try and manage the variables of these matches and use them to your advantage.

The variables of expected value betting explained

As we have just mentioned, there are a number of variables that influence a sportsbook and how they come up with its odds and spreads. The odds and spreads they provide are not fixed though, as they can shift right up to the point where a match kicks off. The trick is to try and catch the odds and spreads that they have perhaps overvalued. If an expected variable of a match changes that could cause the sportsbook to change their odds and spreads, you want to make sure you are there before they actually make those changes. Here are some of the key variables to keep an eye out for that can impact expected value betting:

Weather conditions

The weather can play a significant role in expected value betting and sports as a whole. If you are keen to find some value in the PGA tour and you suspect that the weather might take a turn for the worse, you could use that to your advantage to find value. Of course, the sportsbooks are also keeping this in mind but they will often hold to their initial odds and spreads before quickly making amendments based on weather that might impact a sporting event. It's just one more variable where if you can stay ahead of the curve, you can find yourself a value bet before the odds and spreads shift again.

Injuries to key players

Injuries play a major role in all sports, whether it be a team sport or an individual sport. If you stay on top of the latest sports news, you may find that an injury has occurred to a key player in a team. If you are able to pick up on this quickly enough, you may find that your expected value for a bet has grown in value as the sportsbooks scramble to amend their odds and spreads. The actual player who has been injured obviously plays a big role so don't just jump at the first bit of injury news you see. Know who has been injured and what impact that could have on the game as a whole.

Our top sportsbook picks for December

Bet365
1.
Favicon
4.6/5
Bet $5 Get $150 or $1000 First Bet Safety Net
Virginia
Players from Virginia accepted
Virginia (US) Lottery Board
Bet now
Whatever the sport. Whatever the moment. It's Never Ordinary at bet365. That's why if you sign up now you'll get the choice of two great New Customer Offers, the First Bet Safety Net up to $1000 or Bet $5 and Get $200 in Bonus Bets. Deposit required. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply.Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler 21+
BetMGM
2.
Favicon
4.6/5
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
Virginia
Players from Virginia accepted
PayNearMe
Skrill
PayPal
Virginia (US) Lottery Board
Bet now
T&Cs apply, 21+
FanDuel
3.
Favicon
4.5/5
Bet $5 Get $300 in Bonus Bets if you win + 3 Free Months of NBA League Pass
Virginia
Players from Virginia accepted
Prepaid Card
PayNearMe
PayPal
Virginia (US) Lottery Board
Bet now
T&Cs apply, 21+
Caesars
4.
Favicon
4.5/5
First bet back as a bonus bet up to $1000
Virginia
Players from Virginia accepted
E-Check
PayNearMe
PayPal
Virginia (US) Lottery Board
Bet now
T&Cs apply, 21+
BetRivers.com
5.
Favicon
4.5/5
Second chance bet: Get up to $500 in Bonus Bets
Virginia
Players from Virginia accepted
PayNearMe
Bank Transfer
VIP Preferred
Virginia (US) Lottery Board
Bet now
T&Cs apply, 21+

Tips for using EV betting

We have taken a look at what kind of variables can influence your expected value betting but we also wanted to share a couple of tips with you that will help you to employ this kind of betting approach. Here are a few things to keep in mind when using expected value betting:

Stay on top of sportsbook odds

The expected value is not just going to fall into your lap, nor is the most profitable betting strategy. If you want to find some genuine value bets you will need to put the work in. This will require you to constantly be checking up on the sportsbook platform for any changes to their odds and spreads.

Assess the odds and spreads from as early as possible

One of the most important parts of finding value on these sites is by assessing the odds and spreads as soon as you can. The sportsbook will release their odds and spreads for a sporting event well in advance of the fixture itself. Therefore, you need to review what their initial odds and spreads are to see if they have overvalued or undervalued a team or player. If you think there is almost a value bet to be taken advantage of but not quite, stick with the event and follow its changes on the site right up until the day of kick-off.

Use several sportsbooks

If you only use one sportsbook to try and find value bets, you are going to struggle to find many if any at all. It's important that you give yourself a base of a couple of sportsbooks to work from. You can then compare the odds on these sites which will make your life easier when you assess the potential for value bets.

Make use of an expected value calculator

You can find plenty of betting calculators online right now but finding a quality expected value calculator is the best. They make sports betting math much easier. An expected value calculator can help you to establish if a bet truly has value or not. There is no golden formula for establishing the exact value for the difference in probability expectation between the bettor and sportsbook but you can get a clearer picture.

Conclusion to our expected value betting explained guide

Now that you have had expected value betting explained to you, it should now at least be somewhat clearer how this type of betting approach can drastically improve your long-term betting success. As we said earlier, it is by no means the flashiest way to bet on things. There may be some real excitement when you place a 16-leg parlay bet but the chances of you winning a bet like that are unlikely at best. Instead, taking the calculated approach is what is best for you and your sports betting bankroll. Give yourself the best chance for actually winning value bets by putting in the work and establishing when and where to bet with these online sportsbooks.

Grab an awesome bonus offer today!

Bet365
1.
Favicon
4.6/5
Bet $5 Get $150 or $1000 First Bet Safety Net
Virginia
Players from Virginia accepted
Requirements (WR): 1x Bonus, Min. Deposit: $10
Go to Bet365
Get bonus now
Whatever the sport. Whatever the moment. It's Never Ordinary at bet365. That's why if you sign up now you'll get the choice of two great New Customer Offers, the First Bet Safety Net up to $1000 or Bet $5 and Get $200 in Bonus Bets. Deposit required. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply.Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler 21+
BetMGM
2.
Favicon
4.6/5
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
Virginia
Players from Virginia accepted
Min. Deposit: $10
Go to BetMGM
Get bonus now
T&Cs apply, 21+
FanDuel
3.
Favicon
4.5/5
Bet $5 Get $300 in Bonus Bets if you win + 3 Free Months of NBA League Pass
Virginia
Players from Virginia accepted
Requirements (WR): 1x Deposit, Min. Deposit: $10
Go to FanDuel
Get bonus now
T&Cs apply, 21+
Caesars
4.
Favicon
4.5/5
First bet back as a bonus bet up to $1000
Virginia
Players from Virginia accepted
Requirements (WR): 1x Deposit
Copy
Get bonus now
T&Cs apply, 21+
BetRivers.com
5.
Favicon
4.5/5
Second chance bet: Get up to $500 in Bonus Bets
Virginia
Players from Virginia accepted
Requirements (WR): 1x Bonus, Min. Deposit: $10
Copy
Get bonus now
T&Cs apply, 21+

EV value betting explained FAQ 

❓What is expected value in sports betting?

You would be forgiven for not knowing what expected value betting is if you have never really been an avid sports betting fan. However, it is something that can greatly improve your overall betting experience, especially if you’re looking for a betting edge. It takes time to understand though which is why you need to make sure that you read our expected value betting explained guide to brush up on your knowledge.   

👀Where can I have expected value betting explained?

With our guide of course. You can do some research in your own time as well to really give yourself a good base to work from but your guide will explain this complex process in more detail to you. Save yourself the time and energy searching the internet and instead, read our guide to help you better understand this very interesting approach to online sports betting.   

📄Are there crucial expected value term/terms I should know?

Like any betting strategy, an expected value betting strategy has plenty of moving parts and terms that you need to understand, especially if you’re after the sure bets of the day. The more you come to appreciate the variables involved with expected value betting, the better you can proceed with using this approach as a whole. Our guide will explain in great detail everything about this kind of sports betting. We leave no stone unturned so be sure to check out the guide to learn more. 

📐How difficult is it to use expected value in sports betting?

There are a number of betting strategies for sports that you can use and all of them will vary in terms of how difficult they are to actually put into practice as a winning method in betting. An expected value betting approach is no different. Our guide to using an EV betting term will shed some light on how difficult this approach is to actually use. We will let you know if beginners can take part or if this kind of approach is strictly for the veterans of online sports betting.   

💵Do I need a lot of money to use expected value betting?

Any betting endeavors will need some kind of bankroll to kick things off. However, there are certain approaches to online sports betting that may require a little more capital investment than others. Our guide to using an EV betting term approach lets you know what kind of bankroll you might need to effectively use this kind of strategy for sports betting.   

🤑 Profit BIG time with PromoGuy 🤑
Join our +EV Community!
Top Betting Sites
Top Betting Bonuses
Bet365
4.6/5
BetMGM
4.6/5
FanDuel
4.5/5
Caesars
4.5/5
BetRivers.com
BetRivers.com
BetRivers.com Review
4.5/5
DraftKings
DraftKings
DraftKings Review
4.5/5
Fanatics
Fanatics
Fanatics Review
4.5/5
Barstool
Barstool Review
4.2/5
Bet365
Bet365 Bonus
Bet $5 Get $150 or $1000 First Bet Safety Net
T&Cs apply
4.6/5
Whatever the sport. Whatever the moment. It's Never Ordinary at bet365. That's why if you sign up now you'll get the choice of two great New Customer Offers, the First Bet Safety Net up to $1000 or Bet $5 and Get $200 in Bonus Bets. Deposit required. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply.Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler 21+
BetMGM
BetMGM Bonus
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
T&Cs apply
4.6/5
FanDuel
FanDuel Bonus
Bet $5 Get $300 in Bonus Bets if you win
T&Cs apply
4.5/5
Caesars
Caesars Bonus
First bet back as a bonus bet up to $1000
T&Cs apply
4.5/5
BetRivers.com
BetRivers.com Bonus
Second chance bet: Get up to $500 in Bonus Bets
T&Cs apply
4.5/5
DraftKings
DraftKings Bonus
Bet $5, Get $150 If Your Bet Wins
T&Cs apply
4.5/5
Fanatics
Fanatics Bonus
Bet $100, Get $100 in Bonus Bets Every Day for 10 Days!
T&Cs apply
4.5/5
Barstool Bonus
T&Cs apply
4.2/5
Top Brands
Top Bonuses
Real Prize
Real Prize
Real Prize Review
4.8/5
Stake.us
Stake.us
Stake.us Review
4.7/5
MegaBonanza
MegaBonanza
MegaBonanza Review
4.7/5
McLuck
4.7/5
Wow Vegas
Wow Vegas
Wow Vegas Review
4.6/5
Real Prize
Real Prize Bonus
Up to 125 SC FREE + 625K Golden Coins + 1250 VIP Points
T&Cs apply
4.8/5
Stake.us
Stake.us Bonus
$55 Stake Cash + 260K Gold Coins + 5% Rakeback
T&Cs apply
4.7/5
MegaBonanza
MegaBonanza Bonus
150% Purchase Offer: 25 SC FREE and 50K GC
T&Cs apply
4.7/5
McLuck
McLuck Bonus
27.5 SC FREE and 57.5K Gold Coins
T&Cs apply
4.7/5
Wow Vegas
Wow Vegas Bonus
35 SC FREE and 1.75M WOW Coins
T&Cs apply
4.6/5
Sign Up Now!
Subscribe to our picks by email so you never miss out on a single bet!
Our Team
Collin
Collin
PromoGuy Legend
Sam
Sam
The PromoGuy himself
Peter
Peter
Our man for Picks & Guides
Ryan
Ryan
Expected Value Evangelist
Sam
Sam
The PromoGuy himself
Anton Tabuena
Anton Tabuena
Author
Blaine Henry
Blaine Henry
Author
Eddie Mercado
Eddie Mercado
Author
Frank Bonada
Frank Bonada
Author
Lucas Rezende
Lucas Rezende
Author
Olivia Richman
Olivia Richman
Sweepstakes Casino Writer
Tim Bissell
Tim Bissell
Author
Zane Simon
Zane Simon
Author
Sign Up Now!
Subscribe to our picks by email so you never miss out on a single bet!

21+ and present in VA. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

This site is using Cloudflare and adheres to the Google Safe Browsing Program. We adapted Google's Privacy Guidelines to keep your data safe at all times.
Virginia Town HallCloudflareSSL
Close
mb-eip-mobile-343x602-new
Subscribe to PromoGuy and boost your bankroll for free!
Get started now!
×
Your Promo Code:
The bonus offer of was already opened in an additional window. If not, you can open it also by clicking the following link:
Play now