The best betting guaranteed win strategies – tested by experts
If it was easy to beat the sportsbook, everyone would be doing it! Both in the short term and long term, it can certainly be a difficult task. Nevertheless, there are plenty of pro sports bettors who actually make a living by following betting sure win strategies. But how is it possible to start sports betting with guaranteed wins? You need to follow the principles that are based purely on math and probability.
Let us introduce you to the three main strategies: arbitrage betting, EV betting, and matched betting. These three sports betting guaranteed win strategies are based on sound mathematical principles and probability. They can also help you make the most of sportsbook promo codes. All three of the strategies you're about to hear have been tried and tested by our experts and work in theory and practice.
Arbitrage betting guaranteed win strategy
Arbitrage betting is also known as “arbing” or “sure bets”. This is a popular sports betting sure win strategy that's very much the same as matched betting (more on this later). But instead of using bonus offers to bet on every outcome of a game, you use your own money instead. An arbitrage betting opportunity is made available when the overall odds on a game are at a point where you are able to guarantee yourself a win regardless of the outcome.
Arbitrage sports betting is otherwise known as “arbing”, this is sports betting 101. This betting strategy involves placing numerous bets on all of the different outcomes of a sporting event with the purpose of guaranteeing a profit. In most cases, you place an arb on the soft sportsbooks on one side, and on the other side, you bet on the exchanges or sharps to complete an arbitrage. Typically, you can expect to make a potential ROI of around 1% with arbitrage betting. Arbitrage betting on sports is a strategy where you place simultaneous bets on all of the different possible outcomes of a particular game or sporting event.
How to be successful with your arbitrage betting guaranteed win strategy
To be successful and to make money betting on sports, you need to ensure that the different odds and spreads on the outcomes can guarantee a profit, regardless of the final outcome. You can discover arbitrage betting opportunities by identifying discrepancies between odds and spreads. These discrepancies allow you to make a guaranteed profit by covering all of the possible outcomes. Usually, you would place some kind of binary bet – with just two potential outcomes. For example, you bet on a tennis match, where only two final outcomes are achievable. When sportsbooks disagree on odds and spreads or simply make a mistake during the pricing of a particular market, you are in the position to capitalize on arbitrage betting opportunities.
It will only work when the online sportsbook has listed the greater odds and spreads on their website than what the current market price is. When we say “market price” we mean the value of the odds and spreads that are listed on betting exchanges. For sportsbooks to make a consistent profit from bettors, they rely on delivering odds and spreads under the market price. The terminology used to describe this is the “sportsbooks overround”. Instead of following traditional betting strategies, you need to follow the rules of arbitrage betting to have mathematical probability on your side and guarantee a profit.
Pros of arbitrage betting
- The work required to succeed can be worth the returns
- A successful arbitrage bet guarantees a win with no risk
Cons of arbitrage betting
- Prices are subject to change without notice
- Bettors seeking large payouts need to bet large sums; because of slight margins
- Sportsbooks reserve the right to cancel bets when they realize that there is a discrepancy in the pricing of odds
- You will need to have accounts at several different sportsbooks
- A lot of research and planning is required
Matched betting guaranteed win strategy
The idea behind the strategy of matched betting is to make arbitrage bets using different bonus offers available at the sportsbooks on one side. And on the other side, make an arb bet on a sharp exchange or sportsbook. The soft sportsbooks normally change their odds and spreads slower than sharp sportsbooks. Also, you're more likely to find attractive odds at soft sportsbooks. When sharp sportsbooks make adjustments to odds and spreads, it can take anywhere between a matter of minutes and several hours for the change to come into effect. These windows of time can present great matched betting opportunities. While matched betting can be the least risky strategy for guaranteeing a winning bet, it gives you the lowest payouts on average. Basically, matched betting is a form of arbing. If you’re not sure which provider to get started with, we’ve also got sportsbook ratings covered for you.
Pros of matched betting
- In theory, matched betting is risk-free
- An ideal strategy for players on a budget
- A perfect starting point for beginners looking to build a bankroll
- When you've increased your bankroll, you can transition into long term EV betting strategies
Cons of matched betting
- There is a limit on the availability of promotions
- Winnings are capped at certain price points
- It's possible for sportsbooks to restrict your account after having success with this strategy
- Matched betting is easier for sportsbooks to spot when compared to expected value betting
- Payouts can be quite insignificant due to them being dependent on the size of the bonus offers
- Unavailable for players in the US
Even though matched betting is one of the hottest strategies in the world of sportsbooks right now, matched betting isn't currently available to players in the US. This is due to the laws prohibiting bettors from placing wagers across state lines. Instead of betting being legal in the US on a federal level, individual states are responsible for their own legislation in relation to sports betting.
This is where EV betting comes in as the best winning betting strategy for US bettors.
EV betting guaranteed win strategy
Most betting experts are big on EV betting. And we'll explain why EV betting can be far superior to both arbitrage and matched betting further down this page. It’s certainly worth tracking a sports betting expert prediction. But first, to explain it simply; you're betting on only one side of an arbitrage bet. Instead of placing a bet on every possible result, you'll only bet on one outcome with a positive expected value. Positive expected value (+EV) is one of the best betting guaranteed win strategies for long-term returns. Just like arbitrage, the process involves identifying odds and spreads that are “mispriced” or over the market price. When you use the EV betting strategy, the profit margins on payouts are bigger than arbitrage betting.
However, you will have to understand that this strategy involves variance. You need to accept that there are going to be some good days and some bad days. But in the long run, you have sound mathematical probability on your side. When you understand the rules of large numbers and mathematical probability behind +EV betting, you'll realize that it's possible to gain an edge over the sportsbook and get a betting guaranteed win over time. Essentially, you are using probability and mathematics to guarantee that you are only betting on odds and spreads that give you the mathematical advantage over the sportsbooks.
Pros of expected value betting:
- You can find EV betting opportunities more frequently than arbitrage betting opportunities
- Enjoy a higher ROI% compared to arbitrage
- Ideal for bettors with a long term approach
- Sportsbooks struggle to spot bettors who capitalize on this betting sure win strategy
Cons of expected value betting:
- High variance
- Not suitable for bettors seeking short term gains
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Which betting sure win strategy is right for you? - Arbitrage and matched betting vs value betting
When you're placing arbitrage and or taking part in matched betting USA, you need to be on your toes and make sure that you act fast when the right opportunity arises. You need to remember that sportsbooks are always changing the odds and spreads, so there's only a small window of time to secure profits. On the other hand, expected value betting has far less room for error. After all, you only need to bet once. When you're doing arbitrage betting, you will need to hold numerous betting accounts with different sportsbooks. On the other hand, you only need one account with your chosen sportsbook for EV betting. At the end of the day, EV betting comes out on top for long-term profits, but it all boils down to your own risk to reward profile on which strategy is right for you. Experts are big supporters of value betting because this strategy gives you the highest potential for long-term gains while managing the potential risks involved.
Why EV betting can be superior to arbitrage betting
- Time can be better spent finding +EV bets than trying to place arbitrage bets
- You only need one sportsbook account for positive EV betting
- You are less likely to be hit with any restrictions or account terminations
- Arbitrage bettors are required to bet on every outcome. By doing this, they're usually giving value back to the sportsbooks
- Arbitrage betting relies on a successful bet on both sides that is accepted. You can be left holding a bet if one side is not accepted
Conclusion – gain an edge over the sportsbooks!
There are many ways to capitalize on the mistakes made by sportsbooks. And you'd be surprised how often these opportunities arise in the form of mispriced odds and spreads. When you compare the different betting guaranteed win strategies, EV betting should come out on top every time. With that being said, arbitrage and matched betting tactics can still be great ways to guarantee a payout. It all boils down to your individual goals and preferences.
If you're in it for the long haul, we recommend a combination of discipline, patience, and capitalizing on all of the +EV betting opportunities. This way, you won't need a huge bankroll to get started, and you only need to register with one of the top recommended sportsbooks. EV betting is perfect for those who can see the bigger picture and manage short-term fluctuations. A disciplined approach to EV betting can give you the mathematical advantage and guarantee a payout in the long run.
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Betting guaranteed win FAQ
❓ How can I bet without losing?
By following a betting system based on the laws of probability, it's possible to bet without losing. But as with any betting strategy, there are risks involved. The sportsbooks don't want you to discover and capitalize on the betting systems that give you an edge. But in our guide, we don't hold anything back. Forget about strategies based on speculation and hope. With the help of strategies based on probability, you can gain a mathematical advantage over the sportsbook and potentially be taking advantage of different sportsbook promotions.
💰 What is the most profitable strategy for betting?
We appreciate that some bettors play for fun and entertainment purposes only. But at PromoGuy, we're here to help the players who are in it to win it. Are you with us? In this guide, we share the secrets that the sportsbooks don't want you to hear. Get ready to learn the most profitable betting strategies based on sound mathematical principles and probability. Gain an edge over the sportsbooks with the help of expert insights!
✅ How can I guarantee a winning bet at sportsbooks?
If it was easy to gain an edge over the sportsbook and figure out how to make money on the side, you can be sure that everyone would be doing it! But still, this doesn't mean to say that it's impossible to guarantee a winning bet. If you're serious about beating the sportsbook, you're going to need a combination of patience, discipline, and the strategies outlined in this guide. The strategies you find here are based on the principles of mathematics, probability, and large numbers. All of them have been tried and tested by betting experts and work in theory and practice. Get ready to discover the secrets that the sportsbooks don't want you to hear!
