What is overvalue? A question often asked by those new to EV betting. Well, overvalue occurs when a sportsbook is offering odds that exceed the implied probability of an outcome, exactly the type of bets you need to place.
Finding overvalue bets gives you an edge over the sportsbooks, but first you need to calculate each set of odds to find it. To do this you use implied probability and real probability to calculate the overvalue before placing any bets. In this guide, we will highlight the full process to help you on your way.
A true understanding of EV betting is a surefire way to create the most profitable betting strategies in June. EV betting can be used as a standalone strategy, or you can use it alongside other betting strategies, including bankroll management and hedging. Of course, you can also use it when determining overvalue.
When we consider EV betting, we are constantly on the lookout for discrepancies between the base odds offered by sportsbooks. We will then use a tried and tested formula:
Calculating in this way allows us to confirm the expected value (EV) of the best odds available.
If the result is a positive EV, we would presume that consistently placing bets at those odds over a prolonged period of time will result in a number of winning bets. Conversely, a negative EV would be more likely to result in a consistent stream of losses. So, where does overvalue come into play?
The overvalue of a certain set of odds refers to the difference between the implied probability and the “true” probability of a wager winning. The higher the percentage, the higher a set of odds have been overvalued. As you will soon see, this can have quite an impact on the expected value, showcasing odds that actually have less overall value to you.
This might occur when a certain buzz surrounds a specific team or player, and an influx of wagers has been placed on a specific sports betting market. For example, you may find that McCaffrey coming back from injury has boosted the 49er's odds of winning the Super Bowl. However, based on the 49er’s current form, this doesn’t look too likely.
Before you can calculate overvalue, you need to understand how to calculate implied probability. You can use these formulas to get started.
From there, you’ll need to consider the expected value or “true” probability of the outcome. You can either work this out for yourself or make use of the tools and expertise of the gurus over at PromoGuy+.
Once you have your true probability and implied probability, you’ll need to one away from the other to leave you with the overvalue percentage. You can then use this value to determine whether a specific betting opportunity is worthwhile.
Now you can view the size of the discrepancy directly, and also make use of the EV betting formula to confirm whether it’s a negative or a positive EV betting opportunity.
In the sports betting world, overvalue relies on you finding odds that the sportsbooks have effectively mispriced on a certain market. You then need to calculate the implied and real probability before determining the overvalue percentage.
Although we’ve discussed the process of calculating overvalue already in this guide, this table offers you an exaggerated real-world example.
| Sportsbook | Betting market | Odds | Implied probability | True probability | Overvalue? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | Joe Mixon anytime TD scorer | +120 | 45.45% | 40% | 5.45% |
| Caesars | Joe Mixon anytime TD scorer | +120 | 45.45% | 40% | 5.45% |
| BetMGM | Joe Mixon anytime TD scorer | +180 | 35.71% | 40% | -4.29% |
| Betrivers | Joe Mixon anytime TD scorer | +120 | 45.45% | 40% | 5.45% |
As you can see, Bet365, Caesars, and Betrivers have odds set at +120. This leads to an overvalue of 5.45%. As this is considered overvalued, it would not be a good idea to take their odds, when compared to the +180 odds set by BetMGM. In this instance, the odds are considered undervalued by -4.29%.
Taking the above examples into account, let us break down good and bad overvalue and EV betting principles. Just bear in mind that the usual formula for EV betting will be changed from implied probability to true probability to account for the overvalued odds.
Overvalue % = (implied probability) - (true probability)
Overvalue % = (35.71%) - (40%) = -4.29%
True probability EV betting = (Probability % * profit if bet won) – (Losing probability % * stake)
True probability EV betting = (40% * 180) – (60% * 100) = +12
This means that you would expect to win $12.
Overvalue % = (implied probability) - (true probability)
Overvalue % = (45%) - (40%) = 5%
True probability EV betting = (Probability % * profit if bet won) – (Losing probability % * stake)
True probability EV betting = (40% * 120) – (60% * 100) = -12
This means that you could lose $12.
Obviously, you’ll need to be armed with the above formulas, an understanding of the sports you’re betting on, and potentially a little help from the PromoGuy+ team to get up and running. However, it also pays to have these tick boxes covered.
One of the easiest ways to help determine overvalue is by utilizing an odds comparison tool. We have all you need here at PromoGuy, offering an updated look at some of the best odds around. Once you’ve found some discrepancies, it could be worth cracking out the calculator to check out any possible signs of overvalue.
After you’ve confirmed an EV betting opportunity, you’ll want to make sure that the odds come from a reputable online sportsbook. Fortunately, we’ve been busy working our way around the market, offering updated comparisons of the safest sports betting sites to use in June.
Although it won’t be the first thing to consider, bonuses should always be on your radar. When joining a new sportsbook, you’ll often be presented with a welcome bonus, and as an existing bettor you can often take advantage of promotions like odds boosts. Just make sure that the T&Cs applied work for you and that the markets you’re betting on are eligible.
Overvalue and EV aren’t the easiest concepts to wrap your head around. So, although we have plenty of free +EV betting picks for today ready and waiting, you may want to level things up by having a chat with the team over at PromoGuy+.
As overvalue often comes about due to breaking news and subsequent market movement, you’ll want to stick with sports and betting markets that you are already familiar with. This is the best way for you to make sound judgments based on the true probability of an event outcome.
Hopefully, we have helped to break down a pretty complex topic into manageable chunks for you. Now, you can use your newfound knowledge to make the most of odds discrepancies when they come up. It’s also worth remembering that overvalue predominantly occurs after breaking news or incidents occur, leading to an influx in wagers being placed on a specific betting market.
Such events cause market movement and can send the odds in a particular direction. But now you know how to find out the implied probability and compare it with the true probability to establish the overvalue percentage in each case. Couple this with the EV betting formula, and you’ll be able to make informed betting choices. Alternatively, you can always get in contact with the PromoGuy+ team to take all of the hard work out of it.
There is good and bad overvalue. But by taking the time to make the correct calculations you can easily determine which is the case. And when you combine with EV betting principles, you’ll find that you are likely to profit in the long term using ‘good’ overvalued odds. Our guide covers this topic in detail, or you can head to PromoGuy+ for specific guidance.
No. Overvalue predominantly occurs after breaking sports news is released. For instance, a last-minute injury could raise an opposition's odds. In turn, such events cause changes in betting patterns, and the sportsbook odds, that can be leveraged to your advantage.
As a principle, yes. However, you will want to remember to look out for ‘good’ overvalue betting opportunities. Over a prolonged period, those with positive expected value have the potential to increase your winnings.
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