What Are
Positive EV Bets?
What to Expect with +EV Betting
A +EV bet is basically a bet that has a better chance of winning than the odds imply. When creating their odds, sportsbooks first of all calculate the implied probability of the outcome happening. They then ajust the odds slightly to protect their profit, which is known as the “Vig”.
All betting sites and exchanges consider the same variables and influential factors as each other. That’s why, in general, you will find that the odds for most betting markets are largely the same on all sportsbooks.
However, that’s not always the case, and sometimes you can find bets where the balance of odds vs probability is tipped in your favor. Naturally, such wagers are hard to find, which is why we’re on hand to bring you our positive expected value bet of the day.
EV+ betting explained with examples
To find value bets, we use a positive expected value betting (EV+). EV+ betting is explained best as a calculation that multiplies the probability of winning by the amount you stand to win, less the probability of losing multiplied by the amount lost per bet.
If you get a negative EV result at the end, which you will most of the time, the bet isn’t a value Bet. If you get a positive (EV+) result, the bet then
is
a value bet.
To use the simplest possible example here’s how it would hypothetically work if you were offered value odds on a coin toss. Let’s say you stood to win $11 from a $10 bet on heads. The EV for this bet would be +0.5.
We’ve explained it in example below to make the concept easier for you to grasp.
Calculating EV+ Betting Example
For the sake of this example, let's say you're betting on an NBA game between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Golden State Warriors. In this scenario:
- The Lakers are slight underdogs.
- A sportsbook is offering odds of +150 for a Lakers win.
- Based on your analysis, you believe the Lakers actually have a 45% chance of winning.
- You want to bet $100
We will be using this EV+ betting formula to calculate the expected value of this bet:
(Win Probability
x
Amount won from bet)
- (Loss Probability
x
Amount lost from bet)
Now let's plug in the numbers:
(0.45 x $150) - (0.55 x $100) = $67.50 - $55.00 = $12.50
Interpretation:
The expected value (EV) of this bet is +$12.50. This means that, on average, you would expect to profit $12.50 for every $100 bet placed on the Lakers in this scenario.
Why It’s Important to Have Fresh
+EV Bets every Today
Sportsbooks always want to have value on their side - which is why the house edge is a thing. As a result, when value bets appear, they tend not to hang around for long. That’s why we strive to bring you a fresh value bet of the day every 24 hours.
You can bookmark this page and revisit us daily to find our most recent picks. Or better yet,
subscribe to our PromoGuy+ Premium Plan.
While the value bets of the day that you’ll be able to see here are good, they aren’t the best ones that we offer. You can get even better value picks if you subscribe to our PromoGuy+ Premium Plan.
How to Get Started with PromoGuy+
You can check out our full guide on
how to get started with PromoGuy+
here, but for now, let’s take a look at what you get with the VIP premium plan for just $19.00 per month:
- Multiple daily EV+ picks
- Up to $3,000 monthly profits
- Access to the PromoGuy Plus VIP Discord chat
- Daily picks with promos and offers
- Valuable insight and expert betting tips
Another way to get more than just our value bet of the day is by following our account on X (Twitter). Here we share our free value picks as well as information on offers from US sportsbooks that you can take advantage of.
We also run some special promotions of our own via X. For example, you can get a big discount if you subscribe to our VIP Discord channel for six months.
However, the best posts to look out for are definitely our “Value Bet of the Day” and our “Best Bets of the Day” vlogs. But don’t just take our word for it - give us a follow and see for yourself!
Follow
PromoGuy on Twitter
to get more free EV+ betting picks!
How to Place Value Bets?
We’ve covered the theory of EV betting and where you can find our value bet of the day. However, the most important part is actually putting these bets into action.
The time for talk is over; the time for action is here. With that in mind, here is a step-by-step guide detailing how you can place a value bet today:
- Subscribe to our free value picks
- Subscribe to our free betting picks and follow us on X (Twitter) to get our free value bet of the day and more.
- Claim our recommended sportsbook sign-up bonuses
- To increase the value of your bets, you can use the welcome offers that we’ve highlighted from the best US sportsbooks. You can find all of the bonus information and the promo codes you need to claim them via the banners on this page.
- Register with multiple sportsbooks
- If you want to take full advantage of the offers we mentioned above, then you’ll need to create multiple sportsbook accounts. When it comes to value betting, you’re going to be pretty limited if you only have one betting account, so registering with two or more online betting sites is advised.
- Follow this page, our X (Twitter) account, and VIP Discord
- Keep an eye on our feeds on the aforementioned platforms and look out for all of our value bets each day. When you find the ones that you fancy backing, move on to the steps below.
- Place the
value bet of the day
- Our daily value picks will have odds, the sportsbook offering them, and any bonuses required, to take full advantage. All you need to do is sign into your betting account, locate the market, and add it to your bet slip. Then, simply enter your stake and confirm the bet.
- Watch the action live
- Depending on the sportsbook and sports event in question, you may be able to stream the event live directly on the website. That way you can follow the action and see if your value bet comes up.
- Collect your winnings
- If the value bet is a winner, the payout should appear in your betting account balance shortly after the match or sporting event is concluded. You can withdraw at this point, but we recommend holding tight and building up your bankroll slowly.
- Rinse and repeat
- The key to value betting is finding and placing multiple bets to build up your bankroll over time. That’s why we recommend that you follow our value bets regularly on our free and/or subscription channels.
- Join the PromoGuy+ VIP premium subscription
- As we said before, you can join our premium EV subscription service for just $19.00 per month if you want to get even more value bets each day. Additionally, you’ll also get access to our VIP Discord chat.
Best Sportsbooks for Value Betting
We only recommend the top online sportsbooks in the US when it comes to our value bets. We rate and review all betting sites based on a number of criteria, most notably, odds, promotions, and general value.
Without further ado, here is a quick look at three of the best value bet sites for July 2025:
DraftKings
Draftkings Pros & Cons
- Great welcome offer
- Trusted US brand
- Regular odds boosts
- Ideal for prop betting
If you’ve been a fantasy sports player online at any time in your life, then you’ve probably heard of
DraftKings. Since 2018, it’s also been a sportsbook provider and currently has some of the best value odds for props bets.
If you register as a new player here today and bet $5, you can get $300 instantly in free bets (if your first bet wins). Additionally, there is also a 20% deposit bonus available as an alternative to help you back our value bet of the day. You can check out our DraftKings review here for more details.
Play Free for Your Share of Millions in Prizes with 1st Deposit
Signup Promo
|
18+ in most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibility restrictions apply.
FanDuel
FanDuel Pros & Cons
- Value odds on major sports events
- Special promotions for big events
- User-friendly betting app
- Low vig on most odds
As we stated in our
FanDuel review, this is one of the best sportsbooks if you are looking to get value odds on major sporting events. These include the Super Bowl, Stanley Cup, and NBA Championship Finals series, where you will also find odds boosts and other special promotions.
On top of that, FanDuel is a trusted US brand and its sportsbook is notable for its user-friendly interface and mobile app. Moreover, you can now stream many sports events live with the FanDuel TV+ app.
BetMGM
BetMGM Pros & Cons
- Excellent betting app
- Large no-sweat welcome offer
- Odds for niche markets
- Good for live betting
This online sportsbook is available in more than 23 US states, all of which are specified in our main
BetMGM review. The platform is known for its great branding, user-friendly app, and focus on the major North American sports leagues; NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL.
The pre-game and live odds tend to offer good value here, which is why you will often find that our value bet of the day pick is tipped for BetMGM. If you register today you can get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first wager loses.
But note that if you're from CO, MI, NJ, PA or WV, you're eligible for different welcome offer - bet $10 and get $150 if your initial bet wins!
Positive EV Betting Tips - How to Maximise Your Profits
With everything else out of the way, here are our expert top five tips to help you maximize your profits with 1x2 value bets in 2025:
Follow Our Free and/or Paid Value Betting Picks
Not to blow our own trumpet, but this really will make value betting easier for you. Professional services use sophisticated algorithms and statistical models to analyze thousands of matches daily. Free picks help beginners understand value identification, while paid services offer more detailed analysis and higher volume opportunities. Look for transparent track records (such as our
PromoGuy profit tracker) and realistic profit expectations when choosing a service.
Learn to Calculate Odds and Value Quickly
This used to be the trickiest part, but online calculators now make it much easier. The key is understanding that if your calculated probability is higher than the bookmaker's implied probability, you've found value. Practice mental math for quick calculations - decimal odds of 2.50 equal 40% implied probability (1/2.50 = 0.40). Speed matters when odds are moving rapidly.
Act Fast on Value Opportunities
Our value bet of the day generally won't hang around for long, so you need to get in quick before the sportsbook adjusts the odds. Odds can change within seconds due to automated systems and sharp money. Keep accounts pre-funded, use mobile apps for quick access, and consider odds comparison sites. Never rush your analysis though - false value is worse than missing an opportunity.
Stick to Sports You Know and Understand
If you are finding your own value bets, always focus on sports that you understand and follow closely. Your edge comes from superior knowledge about teams, players, and conditions that bookmakers might overlook. Deep expertise in one or two sports is better than being a generalist across many. Build knowledge systematically by following team news and understanding statistical trends.
Don't Be Afraid to Go Against the Grain
Sometimes in value betting you will be going against public trends, but don't be afraid of contrarian positions. The public often overvalues popular teams and recent form while undervaluing statistical superiority. When the public heavily backs one side, bookmakers may create value on the other side. Base contrarian bets on solid analysis, not just opposing popular opinion.
Expected Value Betting Calculators
As we said in point number two above, the best way to find your own value bet of the day is to use a calculator. Below, you can check out our odds and there’s also our Kelly Criterion calculator, which you can use to try and find your own EV+ picks.
Postive EV Betting - Conclusion
In conclusion, value betting is all about finding diamonds in the rough. You are looking to locate and take advantage of markets where the probability of winning is higher than the odds reflect.
This is difficult on your own, but with our value picks, you can follow what the experts are saying. Moreover, you can use our odds calculators to try and find your own value bets once you gain a bit of experience.
💡 Does value betting really work?
Yes, it does, but you have to be patient. Generally, you will find that our value bets help to grow your bankroll over time - don't expect an instant big win.
🔍 How to find good value bets?
You can check out this page here at PromoGuy and follow our X (Twitter) account for a free value bet of the day. Better yet, you can subscribe to our VIP Discord for just $19.00 per month.
⚠️ Is value betting risk-free?
No, like all forms of gambling, there are still risks involved with value betting. You must always be prepared to lose bets but with the aim of winning a profit in the long term.
Daily picks from betting experts on odds boosts and casino promos
