
Whether you're completely new to value betting or looking to improve your strategy, this guide will teach you everything you need to know about EV betting and how to profit from it.
Here at PromoGuy, we specialize in finding EV bets that give you an edge over sportsbooks, and we even provide free daily + EV betting picks to help you get started. Scroll down to learn how EV betting works and claim your free +EV bets for today!
A +EV bet is basically a bet that has a better chance of winning than the odds imply. When creating their odds, sportsbooks first of all calculate the implied probability of the outcome happening. They then ajust the odds slightly to protect their profit, which is known as the “Vig”.
All betting sites and exchanges consider the same variables and influential factors as each other. That’s why, in general, you will find that the odds for most betting markets are largely the same on all sportsbooks.
However, that’s not always the case, and sometimes you can find bets where the balance of odds vs probability is tipped in your favor. Naturally, such wagers are hard to find, which is why we’re on hand to bring you our positive expected value bet of the day.
To find value bets, we use a positive expected value betting (EV+). EV+ betting is explained best as a calculation that multiplies the probability of winning by the amount you stand to win, less the probability of losing multiplied by the amount lost per bet.
If you get a negative EV result at the end, which you will most of the time, the bet isn’t a value Bet. If you get a positive (EV+) result, the bet then is a value bet.
To use the simplest possible example here’s how it would hypothetically work if you were offered value odds on a coin toss. Let’s say you stood to win $11 from a $10 bet on heads. The EV for this bet would be +0.5.
We’ve explained it in example below to make the concept easier for you to grasp.
For the sake of this example, let's say you're betting on an NBA game between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Golden State Warriors. In this scenario:
We will be using this EV+ betting formula to calculate the expected value of this bet:
(Win Probability x Amount won from bet) - (Loss Probability x Amount lost from bet)
Now let's plug in the numbers:
(0.45 x $150) - (0.55 x $100) = $67.50 - $55.00 = $12.50
Interpretation:
The expected value (EV) of this bet is +$12.50. This means that, on average, you would expect to profit $12.50 for every $100 bet placed on the Lakers in this scenario.
Sportsbooks always want to have value on their side - which is why the house edge is a thing. As a result, when value bets appear, they tend not to hang around for long. That’s why we strive to bring you a fresh value bet of the day every 24 hours.
You can bookmark this page and revisit us daily to find our most recent picks. Or better yet, subscribe to our PromoGuy+ Premium Plan.
While the value bets of the day that you’ll be able to see here are good, they aren’t the best ones that we offer. You can get even better value picks if you subscribe to our PromoGuy+ Premium Plan.
You can check out our full guide on how to get started with PromoGuy+ here, but for now, let’s take a look at what you get with the VIP premium plan for just $19.00 per month:
Another way to get more than just our value bet of the day is by following our account on X (Twitter). Here we share our free value picks as well as information on offers from US sportsbooks that you can take advantage of.
We also run some special promotions of our own via X. For example, you can get a big discount if you subscribe to our VIP Discord channel for six months.
However, the best posts to look out for are definitely our “Value Bet of the Day” and our “Best Bets of the Day” vlogs. But don’t just take our word for it - give us a follow and see for yourself!
Follow PromoGuy on Twitter to get more free EV+ betting picks!
We’ve covered the theory of EV betting and where you can find our value bet of the day. However, the most important part is actually putting these bets into action.
The time for talk is over; the time for action is here. With that in mind, here is a step-by-step guide detailing how you can place a value bet today:
We only recommend the top online sportsbooks in the US when it comes to our value bets. We rate and review all betting sites based on a number of criteria, most notably, odds, promotions, and general value.
Without further ado, here is a quick look at three of the best value bet sites for July 2025:
If you’ve been a fantasy sports player online at any time in your life, then you’ve probably heard of DraftKings. Since 2018, it’s also been a sportsbook provider and currently has some of the best value odds for props bets.
If you register as a new player here today and bet $5, you can get $300 instantly in free bets (if your first bet wins). Additionally, there is also a 20% deposit bonus available as an alternative to help you back our value bet of the day. You can check out our DraftKings review here for more details.
As we stated in our FanDuel review, this is one of the best sportsbooks if you are looking to get value odds on major sporting events. These include the Super Bowl, Stanley Cup, and NBA Championship Finals series, where you will also find odds boosts and other special promotions.
On top of that, FanDuel is a trusted US brand and its sportsbook is notable for its user-friendly interface and mobile app. Moreover, you can now stream many sports events live with the FanDuel TV+ app.
This online sportsbook is available in more than 23 US states, all of which are specified in our main BetMGM review. The platform is known for its great branding, user-friendly app, and focus on the major North American sports leagues; NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL.
The pre-game and live odds tend to offer good value here, which is why you will often find that our value bet of the day pick is tipped for BetMGM. If you register today you can get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first wager loses.
But note that if you're from CO, MI, NJ, PA or WV, you're eligible for different welcome offer - bet $10 and get $150 if your initial bet wins!
With everything else out of the way, here are our expert top five tips to help you maximize your profits with 1x2 value bets in 2025:
Not to blow our own trumpet, but this really will make value betting easier for you. Professional services use sophisticated algorithms and statistical models to analyze thousands of matches daily. Free picks help beginners understand value identification, while paid services offer more detailed analysis and higher volume opportunities. Look for transparent track records (such as our PromoGuy profit tracker) and realistic profit expectations when choosing a service.
This used to be the trickiest part, but online calculators now make it much easier. The key is understanding that if your calculated probability is higher than the bookmaker's implied probability, you've found value. Practice mental math for quick calculations - decimal odds of 2.50 equal 40% implied probability (1/2.50 = 0.40). Speed matters when odds are moving rapidly.
Our value bet of the day generally won't hang around for long, so you need to get in quick before the sportsbook adjusts the odds. Odds can change within seconds due to automated systems and sharp money. Keep accounts pre-funded, use mobile apps for quick access, and consider odds comparison sites. Never rush your analysis though - false value is worse than missing an opportunity.
If you are finding your own value bets, always focus on sports that you understand and follow closely. Your edge comes from superior knowledge about teams, players, and conditions that bookmakers might overlook. Deep expertise in one or two sports is better than being a generalist across many. Build knowledge systematically by following team news and understanding statistical trends.
Sometimes in value betting you will be going against public trends, but don't be afraid of contrarian positions. The public often overvalues popular teams and recent form while undervaluing statistical superiority. When the public heavily backs one side, bookmakers may create value on the other side. Base contrarian bets on solid analysis, not just opposing popular opinion.
As we said in point number two above, the best way to find your own value bet of the day is to use a calculator. Below, you can check out our odds and there’s also our Kelly Criterion calculator, which you can use to try and find your own EV+ picks.
In conclusion, value betting is all about finding diamonds in the rough. You are looking to locate and take advantage of markets where the probability of winning is higher than the odds reflect.
This is difficult on your own, but with our value picks, you can follow what the experts are saying. Moreover, you can use our odds calculators to try and find your own value bets once you gain a bit of experience.
Yes, it does, but you have to be patient. Generally, you will find that our value bets help to grow your bankroll over time - don't expect an instant big win.
You can check out this page here at PromoGuy and follow our X (Twitter) account for a free value bet of the day. Better yet, you can subscribe to our VIP Discord for just $19.00 per month.
No, like all forms of gambling, there are still risks involved with value betting. You must always be prepared to lose bets but with the aim of winning a profit in the long term.
Players must be 21 years of age or older or reach the minimum age for gambling in their respective state and located in jurisdictions where online gambling is legal. Please play responsibly. Bet with your head, not over it. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, and wants help, call or visit: (a) the Council on Compulsive Gambling of New Jersey at 1-800-Gambler or www.800gambler.org; or (b) Gamblers Anonymous at 855-2-CALL-GA or www.gamblersanonymous.org.