The NFL season is moving forward with a head of steam. There’s plenty of action around the lead, which kicks off in week four with what should be a tight game in Arizona. The Seahawks have a lot of momentum, but anything can happen in divisional contests.
This article covers four bets we like from the game. It analyzes the spread, over/under, and two player props by breaking down our choices, as well as the data behind each one.
Starting with the game line, this is a contest where Seattle can absolutely cover. Arizona has a lot going for them this season, but they have a few issues as well. Most notably is their run game. They just lost James Conner for the season with an ankle injury, and now start Trey Benson in his place.
While Benson is strong, this is his first start on a short week. In addition, Arizona has an injured offensive line and Seattle has yet to give up a single rushing TD on the season.
On the other side of the ball, Seattle has plenty of weapons against the Cardinals’ middling defense. Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet are a great one/two punch, while Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba have a strong connection.
The Cardinals play grind it out football, but there’s no telling how that will work against a strong front seven and without their usual bellcow. The Seahawks could get out to an early lead. If they do, their strong core should take over from there.
The Cardinals are a slow team. They don’t have a lethal passing attack and their run game is in question. Even so, Seattle likes to put up points in bunches. Their offense has been effective all season, and it’s only getting better with each passing week. That bodes well for the over.
While 44 is a higher line, both the Seahawks and Cardinals know how to find the endzone. The Cardinals might do it less, but Seattle has enough weapons to get in for a few scores. If they do, Arizona will likely have to pass more in order to catch up.
While there is a scenario where Arizona dominates time of possession and grinds the game to a halt, that would only occur if their defense (ranked 23rd in the NFL) contains Seattle on the ground and in the air. That’s unlikely to happen.
The lack of James Conner will be the focus of the game on Thursday night. The strong runner was the focal point of the Arizona ground attack and perfectly complemented their offense. That being said, Trey Benson is no slouch. He’s a physically gifted athlete with a lot of potential.
That, combined with Seattle’s stout run defense, is why we like this bet. The Seahawks might be able to contain Benson between the tackles, but they are much more susceptible to running backs split out in the flats. In fact, they’ve given up some of the most receiving yards to running backs this season.
Benson is also a good pass catching back, and Murray is prone to dump offs when he can’t find anyone open down field. That scenario could easily come up several times throughout the game against Seattle’s strong secondary. Add on the fact that Benson is set to be a true bellcow, and he could blow by the 25 yard figure with just a few receptions.
Our final bet for Thursday night’s divisional matchup is perhaps the riskiest. Even so, there are several reasons why we like it as a play for those trying to go for a larger payout. The biggest is that Murray likes to run, and he will likely run more without Conner.
The now-injured running back took four of the Cardinals 10 red-zone carries to start the season. Though Benson will take over, he’s not as powerful as Conner. That could cause Jonathan Gannon calling more designed QB runs down by the goal line.
Murray has also averaged 6.7 carries per game so far this season. That’s far above his mark (4.6 carries per game) at this same time last year. He hasn’t had an average that high since 2020. Though he doesn’t power through defenders, the Seahawks have not yet faced an true running QB. Look for Murray to try and scramble into the endzone at least once.
All lines courtesy of DraftKings and FanDuel.
+250
6.5
-102
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