The NFL is set for yet another double header on Monday night, with two exciting matchups between four strong teams. There should be plenty of action, which also means plenty of bets.
In this article we take a look at Monday’s slate from a player prop perspective. To do that, we break down the four lines we like the most, and then explain why we like them from a data and analytical perspective.
Bijan Robinson came into the season touted as one of the best rushers in the league, and he’s more than lived up to the reputation. The agile athlete can catch, juke, and is the focal point of Atlanta’s offense. He also gets a great matchup on Monday night.
The Bills are one of the stronger teams in the NFL, but they are surprisingly weak to the run. They’ve given up the third-highest explosive run rate to running backs in the league this season to go with the third-highest yards after contact per carry. That’s great for Robinson, who has 4.2 yards after contact this year.
While 76.5 rushing yards is a high mark, it’s something Robinson can easily hit given the matchup. He is more than likely to break off a few huge runs, especially since he’s gaining a staggering 7.3 yards after forcing a missed tackle. He should also get plenty of opportunities in what should be a tight game.
Josh Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He also makes a lot of his yards with his legs and has not had a great year from a passing perspective. He’s averaging just 243.4 yards per game in the air, and most of those come from his receivers.
A big reason we like this under is that 52.8 percent of Allen’s total passing yards this season have come after the catch, and the Falcons have allowed the fourth-fewest yards per extended dropback on the year. They contain well and shouldn’t let any of Buffalo’s receivers break free.
On top of that, Atlanta currently has the best total defense (and passing defense in the NFL). They’ve held opposing teams to just 135 passing yards per game. Even if Allen does better than that, the strong quarterback won’t have the opportunity for many deep shots.
Four receptions is not a high mark, but DJ Moore has taken a large step back from his strong start last season. Even so, while he hasn’t put up a ton of yards (or touchdowns) this year, he’s still being targeted a lot in Ben Johnson’s new offense.
He has the second most amount of yardage and receptions on the team behind Rome Odunze. He’s also a great safety net for Caleb Williams. The young quarterback looks for him often and isn’t afraid to sling it his way down the field in tight situations.
Moore had a poor week 1, but since then he’s hit four or more receptions in every game since. That puts him in a great position against Washington’s mediocre pass defense. He may not get a home run catch on Monday, but he’s primed for plenty of smaller routes that should move him past this line.
Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt had his first breakout game last week where he gashed the Chargers for 111 yards and two touchdowns. Though he’ll likely come back down to Earth a little bit tonight, 67.5 rushing yards against a rather mediocre Bears defense is more than doable.
The strong runner is agile and knows how to find holes. Not only that, but several offensive injuries on the Commander side of the ball will likely have them lean on the run more to pick up key first downs. That should give Merritt ample opportunities to hit the 68 yard mark.
Another reason we like this bet is that the Bears are surrendering 6.1 yards per rush this season. That’s the worst in the NFL. The Commanders offensive line had no issues with a stout Chargers defense. They should have no problem putting Chicago on roller stakes either.
All lines courtesy of bet365
+100
1.0
-110
-200
-3.5
-105
-152
-3.0
-102
-592
-10.5
-104
+106
1.5
-110
+154
3.5
-115
-150
-3.0
-102
+950
14.0
-105
+320
7.5
-105
+164
3.5
-110
-218
-4.5
-105
-450
-8.5
-108
-350
-7.5
+100
-1000
-13.5
-105
+102
1.5
-110
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