Thursday Night Football kicks us off for another week of NFL action, this time in California. The evening’s game is a divisional matchup between the Rams and 49ers that provides the opportunity for many good bets.
This article breaks down our pick for the game spread and three various player prop bets for Thursday Night. Each one is thoroughly explained and analyzed using both data and statistics from around the league.
1. 49ers (-110) @ Rams (-105), Pick (Rams -8.5)
This game might seem to have a large spread, and normally we’d hate to give away this many points, but everything is pointing towards Los Angeles in what should be a very tough week for the team from San Francisco. The 49ers have a strong record, but don’t have much else.
That’s because San Francisco can’t stay healthy. They will be without starting quarterback Brock Purdy, as well as receivers Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings. They are missing key role players at all positions (including George Kittle and Nick Bosa) and now have to go against one of the NFC’s top teams on a short week.
The Rams have one of the most tenacious defenses in the NFL, as well as a multi-layered offense that’s humming right now. While divisional games are always closer than they might first seem, San Francisco simply doesn’t have the personnel to keep up in this one. We like the Rams by any spread below ten.
2. Kyren Williams Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
As this game should be one-sided, the Rams are set to go up early and then press their advantage to wear down their opponent. The best way to do that is to run the ball. Kyren Williams is a true workhorse back who should get most of the load in this one.
If he does, 67.5 yards is easily within his reach. He’s playing 75 percent of the snaps this year so far, and ranks seven in both rushing yards and attempts. He’s also averaging an impressive 4.5 yards per carry on the year. That should get him some big opportunities against SF.
The 49ers come into the game with a rather weak rush defense as well. They’re giving up 115.5 yards per game on the ground, and surrendered 115 to Jacksonville last week. Without Nick Bosa (who’s out for the season), Williams could find plenty of holes to run through.
3. Matthew Stafford Over 235.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Stafford, despite preseason rumors about his back injury, is off to a great start this year. He’s averaging a strong 278.5 passing yards per game, and has cleared the above line in three of his four contests. That trend should continue on Thursday night.
While we expect Kyren Williams to have a big day, San Francisco is so depleted that there should be room for both him and Stafford to put up strong numbers. Especially considering that Puka Nacua continues to be one of the best receivers in the league and Davante Adams has truly turned back the clock.
The Rams quarterback is coming off of a 375 yard performance. He’s also thrown the ball 29 or more times in every start this year. That volume, mixed with the 49ers depleted defensive line, should allow him to hit the over here without too much trouble.
4. Eddy Pineiro Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (-105)
We end our bets with a kicker. Pineiro has slotted well into the 49ers team after the release of Jake Moody. While he doesn’t have the strongest leg or the most accuracy in the league, he’s done a good job of getting the ball through the uprights when needed. He’s perfect on the year, showing his accuracy has no issues.
San Francisco is set to have a weakened offense solely dependent on Christian McCaffrey to pull them through. The Rams defense knows this, and will act accordingly. They should stack the box and bring pressure, which should both lead to many stalled drives.
If the 49ers do have trouble moving the ball, Pineiro will get plenty of opportunities to get two field goals through the uprights. He might not be in field goal range often, but the fact that this is a divisional game could make the SF offense push down the field.
All lines courtesy of BetMGM and DraftKings.
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