This week, the NFL action (and bets) spills over into Monday night. It’s a double-header, with two simultaneous games taking place. Each one has the makings of a tight game, and they both come with interesting money lines as well.
In this article we cover four player prop bets from tonight’s action. We break down each one, why we like it, as well as the data and statistics behind each decision.
Two weeks ago, everyone was ready to write off the Dolphins. After last week’s performance against the Bills, they showed they still have some fight left. There are a few strong pieces on their offense, and one of those is rookie Ollie Gordon.
Gordon only has fifty yards on the season, but a lot of that is due to game script more than anything else. He ran for four yards on two attempts in game one, eight yards on one attempt in game two, and then 38 yards on nine attempts last week. He also recorded 4.2 yards per carry and a touchdown in that contest.
That ramp up is a big deal because it shows the coaching staff is starting to trust him. He’s not going to take the backfield from De’Von Achane anytime soon, but he has enough skill to slot in to give the starter a break. That should give him more opportunities to hit a few solid runs against a very middling Jets rushing defense.
Our favorite underdog line of the day, we like Justin Fields to carry the ball across the goal line during his return from injury Monday Night. The quick quarterback has never been afraid to take off with the ball, and he’s behind an offensive line that gives up a lot of pressure. That creates plenty of opportunities for him to run.
Fields has two rushing touchdowns in the two games he played this season. He also has 21 for his entire career. That’s due to his strong legs and great vision in the open field. All of that suggests he’ll be looking to take off a few times against Miami.
It’s also important to note that the Dolphins have given up the most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season. It’s a big gap in their defense, allowing both Daniel Jones and Drake Maye to get into the endzone. Those two, while talented, cannot move as well as Fields. He’ll be looking to find the endzone.
The Broncos have had an up-and-down year so far this season. They have some potential, but Bo Nix is a far cry from where the coaches thought he’d be. He’s thrown for 176, 206, and 153 yards this year. Part of that is regression, but part of it is the Broncos run-first offense.
Denver (and Sean Payton) are doing everything they can to establish the ground game. That, combined with the fact that the Bengals have the 11th worst rushing defense in the league, makes this a great opportunity for J.K Dobbins to get some good chunks of yardage.
The shifty back hasn’t had a huge year. He’s been hit in the backfield a lot, and the Denver line has struggled. Despite that, Dobbins has gone over the 65 yard mark twice already. He runs hard and has a knack for finding holes. Against a team like the Bengals, there should be plenty of opportunities to get into the secondary.
Our final bet of the day is more of a gut call more than anything else. Though the Bengals are still adapting to losing Joe Burrow for the next few months (if not the season), Jake Browning can sling the ball downfield. That can be a detriment at times, but it can lead to big plays too.
Browning has already shown in the past that he has a good connection with Tee Higgins. The athletic receiver has caught five touchdowns from the backup QB, including one two weeks ago against the Jaguars. He also has five games with Browning where he’s caught 50 or more yards.
All of that shows Browning trusts Higgins. In the last six games the two played together, Higgins received eight or more targets four times. The Broncos also play a lot of man coverage (the second most in the NFL) which means Higgins could easily get open in the endzone if he beats his assignment.
All lines courtesy of BetMGM
-168
-3.5
+100
+105
1.5
-110
-126
-2.0
-108
+136
2.5
+100
-145
-2.5
-118
+410
10.5
-110
+240
6.5
-110
+194
4.5
-104
-220
-4.5
-105
-195
-3.5
-110
+155
3.0
+100
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