We are entering the bulk of week six in the NFL and things are starting to fall into place. The league is separating contenders and pretenders, with many bets moving along those lines. Even so, a few stand out from the rest.
In this guide we break down our four favorite game bets from around the league. We take an in-depth look at each one, analyze the matchup, and give the reasoning behind each pick.
We start off the day with our riskiest bet. The Cardinals are a team in trouble. They had a brutal loss last week to the Titans, and have now lost Kyler Murray to a foot injury that could sideline him for multiple weeks. Arizona will start Jacoby Brissett in his stead.
While that’s not enough for us to give up 9.5 points, the Colts also continue to be one of the best teams in the league. They have a strong offense and their defense is gelling at the right time. That allowed them to clobber a weak Raiders team, and if they keep moving the ball on offense, they should have no issues dealing with the reeling Cardinals either.
Arizona is now down their starting running back and quarterback. Those are brutal losses, especially if their defense continues to slow down throughout the game. The Colts like to strike early and often. Expect them to do just that here on their way to what should be another big win.
This is another game where we’re giving away a lot of points. Even so, the Rams are a very complete team going up against a Baltimore squad with almost nothing going for them. They lack offense, can’t move the ball, and are an absolute mess when it comes to defense.
Lamar Jackson is also set to miss his second straight game this week. The superstar quarterback covered up a lot of issues. Without him on the field, things get extremely dicey.
The Rams have one of the best offenses in the league. Their passing attack only gets better with each week thanks to the dual-threat of Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. The Ravens, in contrast, have the second worst passing defense in the NFL. That’s a bad combination for the home team, and should lead to Los Angeles putting up plenty of points in a big victory.
The Jaguars and Seahawks are two teams playing above expectations this season. While Seattle is coming off of a tough late-game loss, they are a strong squad looking for a big bounce back game in front of their home crowd. Jacksonville, in contrast, is a well-rounded machine coming off of a huge win against Kansas City.
Though this is set to be a tight contest, we like Jacksonville because they have a much more balanced team with a stronger identity. Seattle’s secondary is still cause for concern, and they rely heavily on a run attack to move the ball. Those are two things the Jaguars can target throughout the game.
Both teams like to pound the ball. That should lead to long, sustained drives and keep the score close. Even so, nobody generates more turnovers than Jacksonville. All it takes is one key interception to swing the game in their favor. That’s why we give them the nod here.
Our favorite underdog pick of the day comes from Sunday Night. After an inconsistent week one, the Lions have found their groove. They have one of the best offenses in the NFL (ranked sixth), with a great balance between passing and rushing that makes them hard to guard.
The Chiefs, while still strong, have plenty of holes. It’s hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes, especially at home, but Kansas City has dropped plenty of close games this season. Their eighth-ranked offense will score points. However, they don’t have the raw talent to match Detroit in a shootout.
On top of that, the Lions have a top ten defense this year. While the Chiefs are going to score, Detroit should have no issues wearing down Kansas City’s defense as the game goes on.
All lines courtesy of DraftKings.
+100
1.0
-110
-200
-3.5
-105
-152
-3.0
-102
-592
-10.5
-104
+106
1.5
-110
+154
3.5
-115
-154
-3.0
-102
+950
14.0
-110
+320
7.5
-105
+164
3.5
-114
-218
-4.5
-105
-474
-8.5
-108
-350
-7.5
+100
-1000
-13.5
-105
+102
1.5
-110
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