As the NFL season continues forward, the league is starting to take shape. Some teams are rising to the top, some teams are falling to the bottom, and there are plenty still fighting for position. That is where we’re looking for our bets this week.
This article analyzes the four games (and their spreads) we like most for Sunday. To do that, it breaks down each contest, covers both teams, and explains the data that backs our decisions.
1. Titans (+300) @ Texans (-400), Pick (Texans - 7.5)
The Titans and Texans are two teams headed in the wrong direction. Tennessee hasn’t had much success this season, as tends to be the case with teams starting a rookie QB, while the Texans lack of an offensive line has put them in an offensive hole they cannot seem to overcome.
Even so, the teams are not equal. Houston has plenty of playmakers, including both Nico Collins and a rejuvenated Nick Chubb, which has allowed them to move the ball. Tennessee, on the other hand, is much more stagnant. They have a lot of trouble finding the end zone and consistently struggle to sustain drives.
That does not bode well for the Titans, who go on the road to face one of the hardest-hitting defenses in the NFL. They are sure to struggle plenty against Houston’s front, who have no trouble getting to the quarterback. Their bottom-five defense could also allow C.J Stroud to get back on track. While 7.5 is a large spread, Houston should cover in this one.
2. Commanders (+110) @ Falcons (-130), Pick (Commanders +1.5)
Our first (and favorite) underdog pick of the day comes from the heart of Atlanta. The Falcons might be the favorites due to being at home and taking on a Commanders team without their starting quarterback, but Washington is much stronger overall than their opponent.
Last week, Marcus Mariota did a great job filling in for Jayden Daniels. He threw for 207 yards, a touchdown, and posted a QBR of 118.6. He ran in a touchdown as well. The Falcons, on the other hand, are coming off an embarrassing 30-0 loss against the lowly Panthers.
While they do have some big play makers like Bijan Robinson and Drake London, Atlanta has a huge issue at quarterback. Michael Penix is not adjusting well to the NFL. He’s making plenty of mistakes and missing easy throws. The Commanders don’t have a great defense, but they should be able to contain him. That should give them enough to win and cover.
3. Jaguars (+150) @ 49ers (-175), Pick (Jaguars +3.5)
The Jaguars and 49ers enter Sunday with an interesting spread. San Francisco is 3-0, but they have a lot of issues right below the surface. Many of their best players are out with injury, and they just lost star defensive end Nick Bosa for the season with an ACL tear.
Jacksonville has a slew of their own issues, including a muddy backfield and an inconsistent offense, but they are finding ways to win. They know how to play their style of game, grind things down, and dominate time of possession.
This is a battle of two top defenses. Jacksonville ranks 10th, while the 49ers are ranked 4th. That should make this a hard-fought battle at every step of the way. We like the Jaguars, however, because they are fielding more starters. In tight contests, that usually makes all the difference.
4. Packers (-320) @ Cowboys (+260), Pick (Packers -6.5)
Micah Parsons returns to Dallas in what should be a pretty easy game for the visiting team. While the Cowboys have plenty of pieces, they face two huge obstacles that they are unlikely to overcome. The first is that they will be without C.D. Lamb. The star wideout is nursing an ankle injury and is set to miss a few weeks.
On top of that, they have a bottom three defense and the worst passing defense in the league. Through three weeks, Dallas has given up 288 yards passing per game to opposing teams. Jordan Love and company should be able to take full advantage of the lackluster squad.
Green Bay’s defense should also feast on Dallas’ depleted offense. Dak Prescott has a tendency to make poor throws when under pressure, and he’s down a weapon. While this game has a big spread, the Packers have a strong enough team to cover.
All lines courtesy of ESPN Bets.
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