Week five wraps up in the NFL with a Monday night matchup between two surprisingly even teams. The Chiefs head to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars in what should be a game full of good players and good bets.
In this article we cover the four lines we like most for the AFC Showdown. To do that, we break them all down, analyze the data behind them, and explain the reasoning behind each choice.
Tonight’s spread might seem close, but Jacksonville is a tough, gritty squad this season whose shown some serious potential. They also have a lot of skill players rising up to the challenge. Even so, it’s hard to bet against Kansas City when they start to hit their groove.
After a slow start, the Chiefs are coming off of a huge 17-point win against the Ravens. While Baltimore has a slew of issues, including a weak passing defense, Andy Ried and Patrick Mahomes are two people who know how to take advantage of momentum. Once they get their train rolling, it’s hard to stop it.
The Jaguars have a lot of young talent, but they aren’t winning games convincingly. Though they could get up early and try to grind things out, more likely the Chiefs are going to come out slinging. In that case, it’s hard to go against Mahomes. Especially with Worthy returning for the second straight game.
If the last game is any indication, Mahomes seems to be getting back into his groove. The Chiefs have not had a great passing attack this season. Even so, with the return of deep threat Xavier Worthy and an updated playbook, they should look to pass tonight.
Mahomes has thrown for seven touchdowns and 939 yards this year. He’s also run the ball himself for quite a few first downs. While he’s not clicking quite as well as he had in past seasons, the Chiefs have a very weak run game. That often forces them to throw downfield or audible into passes.
Mahomes has thrown for 37 or more passes in three of the first four games this year. Jacksonville has a tough defense that creates turnovers and gets after the quarterback. That’s a perfect combination for the Chiefs QB to sling the ball early and often.
After missing two games to injury, Xavier Worthy made his comeback against the Ravens in week four. He exploded out the gates and showed everyone why the Chiefs so badly needed his speed. He stretched the field, gave Mahomes a new target, and created an extra dynamic for the rather static offense.
Worthy ended the game with 83 yards on five receptions, including a 37-yard catch. That shows Mahomes likes having him as a target. It also bodes well for him having at least five receptions tonight because it usually takes a game for an injured player to get back on track with their QB.
In a contest where the two should have been out of sync, Mahomes and Worthy gelled quite well. He was targeted eight times, and that’s only going to get better tonight. In a game where passing should be the primary focus of a weak rushing team, it’s easy to see Worthy racking up the receptions.
Our last bet on the day flips over to Jacksonville. In what everyone thought would be a down year for the Jaguars’ rushing attack, Travis Etienne Jr. has emerged as a true star once again. He’s back from an injury-riddled 2024 and is averaging an incredible 6.1 yards per rush on the season. He’s also hit the 100-yard mark twice.
He takes that momentum into a Monday night showdown against one of the weaker rushing defenses in the NFL. The Chiefs have been stout up front in the past, but they are surrendering 4.9 yards a rush this season. They’ve also allowed two of the four running backs they’ve faced to get more than 64 yards.
If Etienne continues his elusive ways and pushes ahead behind his strong line, he should be able to hit that mark as well. He’s already passed the line in three of his four games this year. Against a struggling run defense, we like him to do it another time.
All lines courtesy of DraftKings and FanDuel.
+100
1.0
-110
-115
-200
-3.5
-105
-112
-152
-3.0
-102
-112
-592
-10.5
-104
-108
+106
1.5
-110
-110
+154
3.5
-115
-108
-150
-3.0
-102
-105
+950
14.0
-105
-110
+320
7.5
-105
-115
+164
3.5
-110
-110
-218
-4.5
-105
-118
-450
-8.5
-108
-108
-350
-7.5
+100
-112
-1000
-13.5
-105
-115
+102
1.5
-110
-105
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