For the second week in a row, Thursday Night Football features a divisional matchup. This one might not be as competitive as last week’s, but it sets the stage for several good bets.
In this article we cover four different lines, including the game spread, over/under, and player props, for tonight’s matchup. We break each one down in detail and analyze we like each pick through data.
1. Eagles (-105) @ Giants (-114), Pick (Giants, +7.5)
This game is set to be a mismatch. Even so, while the Eagles should have no problem wearing the Giants down, last Thursday taught us that you can’t give up too many points in a divisional matchup. The Eagles are the better team, but this could be closer than expected.
Philadelphia is one of the strongest squads in the league. They also play an interesting style of football. Unlike some of the other juggernauts, they like to grind games to a halt. They rely on their run game, eat a lot of clock, and play with slow, methodical drives. While that translates to wins, it also doesn’t give them too many opportunities to blow teams out.
Something else to note is the Giants have a stout front four and are weak to the run. They get after the quarterback and apply pressure, but also rank 26th in rushing defense. That will allow the Eagles to play their game. Philadelphia is likely to come out on top, but 7.5 is too many points to give up to a home team in a tight matchup.
2. Over/Under 40.5, Pick (Under -105)
This game is going to be one of field position and clock management. Though Jaxson Dart has shown flashes of talent this season, he still needs some time to gel into an NFL system. The Giants rank 28th in points scored this season, including their big game against Dallas in week two. They don’t get into the endzone a lot, even when winning.
That’s then combined with the Eagles run-first approach. Philadelphia loves to dominate time of possession and rely on long, sustained drives. Jalen Hurts is only averaging 177.8 passing yards per game this year, and he’s doing it while winning. That means the Eagles have no reason to go away from that style of play.
With Philadelphia running so much and the Giants struggling to score, we like the under here.
3. Jalen Hurts Under 197.5 Passing Yards (-115)
As mentioned, the Eagles are a run-first team. Hurts continues to be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but he wins games with his legs rather than his arm. He’s only thrown over the 200 mark twice this season, and he’s never gone over 300.
That trend will likely continue against the Giants. Not only will the Eagles run the ball against what is a rather mediocre rushing defense, but New York loves to apply pressure. Their strong defensive line creates a lot of sacks, which should force the Eagles to call a lot of quick plays and short passes. Hurts will also likely move out of the pocket and look for running lanes too.
If the Eagles get a few early run-dominated drives to build a comfortable lead, their dependence on the ground game will only grow. That means less passing for Hurts. He might sling a long pass or two early, but that’s never what the Eagles want to do. As long as they’re in control, Hurts won’t look downfield that much.
4. Jaxson Dart Over 30.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
The Giants have become a pass-first team over the past few weeks since letting rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart take the reins. The young quarterback had a strong first outing against Los Angeles, but came back down to Earth in a rough loss last week against New Orleans.
There are many unknowns about Dart, but one thing for certain is that he likes to pass. After a game where he used his legs a lot, the nimble quarterback threw 40 times last week. A lot of that was due to New York playing from behind and needing to get points, but that could well be the same position he finds himself in on Thursday Night.
The Giants do get Tyrone Tracy Jr. back, but it’s his first game returned from injury. He’ll likely need to be worked back into the lineup, which means Dart will be looking downfield more often than not. He also has a hamstring issue, which could limit his mobility and force him into even more passes.
All lines courtesy of FanDuel and BetMGM.
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