Wild card week is flying by. The first round of the MLB playoffs has almost come to a close, but there are still three series that need to wrap up on Thursday. While each game has plenty of betting opportunities, there are some we like more than others.
This guide covers our four favorite player props on the day. We break each one down, look at the data behind it, and discuss our reasoning for choosing the line over similar picks.
Our first bet comes from Chicago, where the Padres and Cubs will battle for their playoff lives. The home team is set to start Jameson Taillon (3.68 ERA). While he’s not the most consistent starter on the roster, we like him to have a solid outing against a good Padres team.
There are two reasons for that. First, the righty is on a tear as of late. He’s posting an incredible 1.85 ERA over his last seven starts and should carry that momentum into Thursday’s game. He’s heating up at the right time and has been pitching extremely well down the stretch.
In addition, Wrigley Field ranks as the 7th-worst park for batting average this season. With a high fence and the fifth-deepest right field in the MLB, it will be hard for the Padres to get any balls out. Add on the home field advantage, and Taillon should be set to last more than four innings.
Jack Flaherty has had a rocky season at best. He’s posting a 4.64 ERA on the year, and has a 4.21 ERA during his last seven starts. He’s also faced the Guardians three times this year and posted a 3.94 ERA in those outings. All of that suggests Cleveland knows how to hit him.
We like this bet, not necessarily because Flaherty will get knocked around, but because he’s an inconsistent pitcher facing a team who knows him well. He’s gone over 1.5 earned runs in two of his last four starts and is much worse on the road.
His ERA balloons up to 5.27 when going to opposing parks. During his last start against Cleveland he also gave up three runs in 4.1 innings of work. All of that suggests the Guardians should be able to get at least two runners across the plate in this one before the starter exits the game.
Once one of the best pitchers in baseball, Yu Darvish is coming off an extremely rocky season. He posted a 5.38 ERA on the year, and has a 4.27 ERA over his last seven games. He’s also going up against a strong Cubs team who knows how to put the ball into play.
Chicago has the 11th-lowest strikeout rate against right handed pitchers since the start of July. That, combined with Darvish’s inconsistency this season, should allow them to get the bat onto the ball quite a bit. Even if Darvish posts a good outing, a lot of that should come from ground balls and fly outs rather than K’s.
Something else to note is how often the Padres turn to their bullpen. They aren’t afraid to lean on their relievers, even when things are going well. Darvish has only gone six innings twice in his last ten starts. That doesn’t give him a lot of time to punch people out.
Anytime you bet on a hitter, it’s typically a good idea for that hitter to be Aaron Judge. The slugger continues to hammer the baseball in the postseason. Though he doesn’t have a home run, he’s 4-for-8 in the current series (2-4 in both games).
He will have a tough starting assignment against Red Sox starter Connelly Early (2.33 ERA). However, while Early has a strong arm and low ERA, the two have never faced off. That could allow Judge to jump on a pitch early in the count if he gets tested.
The powerful righty went over 1.5 total bases in four of his final five regular season games. He’s seeing the ball well, and his team will need him to step up if they want to move on. That all points to Judge locking in and getting a big hit.
All lines courtesy of DraftKings and BetMGM.
-166
-3.5
-105
-170
-3.0
-115
-225
-5.5
-105
+400
9.5
-105
-142
-3.0
-105
+145
3.0
-102
-285
-6.5
-110
-225
-4.5
-105
-235
-6.0
-105
+350
8.5
-110
+385
9.5
-105
+140
3.0
-105
+220
6.0
-108
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