It’s a slow Thursday for baseball, but there are still plenty of great bets to be found across the MLB. With nine games happening on the slate, a few players find themselves in favorable betting situations.
This article covers our four favorite player props on the day. It does that by looking at the data and breaking down different statistics to explain the reasoning behind each one.
Our favorite home run bet on the day comes from Seattle. Cal Raleigh is having an incredible season from a power standpoint. He’s hit 53 long balls this season and is always a threat to get a hold of one. While his average isn’t quite at the same level, he goes into a great situation on Thursday.
The power hitter will face Jose Soriano (4.07 ERA). The Angels pitcher started off the year at a relatively good pace, but has a problem when it comes to giving up the long ball. He’s allowed eight home runs across his last nine starts, and that trend doesn’t seem to be slowing down.
During his last time on the mound Soriano allowed eight earned runs against the A’s in just 2.1 innings pitched. That tendency to give up bad pitches, combined with Raleigh’s raw power, makes this a solid long ball bet.
While Camden Yards has one of the deepest left field fences in the MLB, we’re going for the big hit with this one. Bryan Reynolds is not a true slugger. He’s only hit fifteen home runs this season and isn’t exactly a perennial threat at the plate. Even so, there’s a lot to like here.
Not only is Reynolds facing Cade Povich (5.16 ERA) but he’s heating up at the right time. Povich struggles with giving up the long ball. Over the last month he’s given up 1.83 home runs per outing with a 42.1 percent FB. That’s great for opposing hitters no matter how you look at it.
In addition, Reynolds hits much better against left-handed pitching. He’s smashing .246/.327/.446 with six home runs when facing south paws this year. He also has a .500 SLG over the last week, showing just how much he’s been heating up. If you’re looking for a sneaky bet with a big pay out, this one is a solid chance to take.
Bryce Harper might not be having the strongest season average-wise (.263) but the slugger is always a threat to get a big hit. He homered in his last game, and continues to see the ball extremely well. He should take that momentum into Thursday’s matchup against New York.
He faces off against David Peterson (3.72 ERA). While the southpaw is having a decent season overall, his ERA has shot up to 6.69 over his last seven starts. He’s been inconsistent, which could lead to him giving up a multi-base hit. Harper also sees him extremely well.
The Phillies slugger is 9-for-24 with a home run against Peterson in his career. He’s batting .270 when facing left handed pitchers this season, and is hitting .299 at home. All of that combines to make it more than likely he gets a few bases.
Kevin Gausman might not have the lowest ERA in the league (3.63), but he’s having a strong year all around when it comes to staying in games. The right hander doesn't get the best run support, but he’s a workhorse who can shut down opposing offenses.
Gausman has allowed less than 2.5 runs in back-to-back starts and in four of his last five outings, including a one-run masterpiece against the Yankees. He can get rolling early, and if he does the Blue Jays like to keep him out on the mound.
That tendency to go long is why we like this bet. The Astros aren’t the strongest hitting team this season, and could struggle early. If they do, or if Gausman hits his spots, there’s no reason why he can’t go more than six innings.
All lines courtesy of DraftKings and BetMGM.
+100
1.0
-110
-200
-3.5
-105
-152
-3.0
-102
-592
-10.5
-104
+154
3.5
-115
-150
-3.0
-102
+950
14.0
-105
+320
7.5
-105
+164
3.5
-110
-218
-4.5
-105
-450
-8.5
-108
-350
-7.5
+100
-1000
-13.5
-105
+102
1.5
-110
+120
2.5
-105
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