There are a lot of high scoring teams playing in the MLB, but not all of them score early. Today, there are quite a few games that look to be scoreless in the first inning and could lead to a solid payout for those betting NRFI (No Run First Inning).
This article covers our four favorite NRFI bets on the day by explaining why we like them, the matchups that could lead to an empty first frame, and the data behind each decision.
The Mariners and Orioles are two teams that don’t score well during the early innings. They have some hitters throughout their lineups, but both squads need some time to warm up. Seattle is top 10 in run scoring this season, but they also are middling when it comes to getting runs across early.
Tomoyuki Sugano doesn’t have the best pitching stats for Baltimore, but he has a 3.00 ERA over the past months and has held the opposition to just one run in two of his last three starts. He could easily come out early and shut down Seattle in the first, especially due to the fact that the Mariners are 27th in the league in strikeouts.
On the other side, the Mariners send Logan Evans to the mound. He’s not the best pitcher in the league, but the Orioles have struggled at the plate all year long. If the Mariners don’t score in the top half, it’s unlikely Baltimore will either.
This is perhaps our most confident NRFI bet on the day. The Marlins and Guardians are two teams that don’t do a lot of early scoring, and they both are going to have a tough time on Thursday.
The Marlins send Edward Cabrera to the mound, who has a 3.08 ERA and 114 strikeouts on the year. The Guardians do have one of the highest runs per game in baseball, but Cabrera’s 2.06 ERA over his last seven games suggests that if they do get hot it won’t be until the later innings.
On the other side, Cleveland will start Tanner Bibee. He’s much worse than Cabrera (4.60 ERA), but he’s facing a Marlins lineup who have a 73.33 percent NRFI rate. That’s eighth worst in the league this season. All of that data suggests both sides will have trouble scoring in the first.
This is another game where the pitching looks great from both sides. Jesus Luzardo, who has held teams scoreless in the first inning 18 times this season, takes the mound for the Phillies against a Nationals team who has the seventh highest strikeout rate in baseball over the last seven days. He also has one of the lowest first inning walk rates in the league.
On the other side, Brad Lord has a 2.49 ERA over his last seven games, a 2.70 ERA over his last fifteen, and has not given up a first inning run in eight of his ten starts. That could lead to him getting a few quick outs and moving onto the next frame.
While Philadelphia does have a few power hitters at the top of their lineup, they have the fourth highest first-inning strikeout rate of any team in the last 30 days. Combine that with the twelfth-worse wOBA (.312), and we like this line quite a lot.
Sometimes, it’s smart to take the obvious bet. That’s the case here, with the Tigers and Twins. While both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, this is a game where things could match up nicely for a solid pay out.
First, the Tigers will start Tarik Skubal. The electric pitcher has a 2.35 ERA on the season and sports an 11-3 record. The Twins aren’t the best hitting team, and it’s easy to see him throwing three quick outs. He’s also a strong enough pitcher that he could recover if he gives up a hit or two.
The Twins will counter the reigning Cy Young winner with Bailey Ober. While his statistics are nothing to write home about, Ober only gave up one run in his last start. The Tigers are a better team than Kansas City at the plate, but they also have had a lot of offensive struggles as of late. It could take some time for their bats to get going.
All lines courtesy of FanDuel
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