MLB NRFI Bets September 23: Four Bets for Tuesday

Betting Analyst

Publish Date: 09/23/2025

Fact checked by: Collin

After an extremely quiet day around Major League Baseball, things pick back up as we inch closer to the postseason. There are plenty of games happening today, with most of them bringing interesting lines and betting opportunities to the table.

This guide looks at our favorite No Run First Inning (NRFI) contests on the day. We take an in-depth look at each one by studying pitching matchups, the general data, and then using such statistics to explain our picks.

1. Tigers vs. Guardians No Run First Inning (-165)

When looking at NRFI games, it’s always key to focus on ones with strong pitching. That’s the case here. The Tigers and Guardians are two great teams locked in a tight division race. They are also both sending their best to the mound on Tuesday.

The Tigers will start ace Tarik Skubal (2.23 ERA) against Guardians star Gavin Williams (3.06 ERA). Both pitchers have proven time and time again this season that they can carve up any lineup and have the ability to shut down even the best offenses. They also come out of the gates strong.

While the Guardians and Tigers both enter the game with solid hitting, getting a run in the first against either Skubal and Williams is very tough. They post an 87 percent and 73 percent NRFI rate on the season, respectively. That should lead to a quiet (and scoreless) first inning.

2. Red Sox vs. Blue Jays No Run First Inning (-115)

Another battle of two strong squads with solid pitchers, the Red Sox and Blue Jays have the perfect set up for an empty first frame. That’s because both teams are also kicking things off with great arms who do a solid job in the first inning.

Kevin Gausman (3.38 ERA) takes the mound for the Blue Jays against the ever-consistent Lucas Giolito (3.46 ERA). The pair both post an NRFI percent at a little over 70, which bodes well in what should be a tight divisional matchup between two teams doing what they can to get to the postseason.

Anytime the stakes are high, good pitchers tend to bring their best stuff to the mound. That might not hold for an entire game, but it should be more than enough for the first. Both offenses can hit, but the pitchers definitely have a first inning advantage in this one.

3. White Sox vs. Yankees No Run First Inning (-110)

The Yankees have their eyes set on the postseason, while the White Sox continue to flounder. Despite that discrepancy, and despite the Yankees ability to put the ball in play (and over the fence), we like this game as a possible NRFI candidate for two reasons.

First, the White Sox are not a strong hitting team. They have one of the worst offenses in baseball, and will have to face off against Luis Gil (3.33 ERA). The righty does a great job in the first inning, posting an NRFI rate of 89 percent. That should be even easier given the White Sox offensive woes.

The other reason we like this line is that Chicago will start Shane Smith (4.06 ERA). While he has gotten knocked around a few times, Smith has a 3.66 ERA over his last seven starts and is extremely strong in the first inning. He has a 78 percent NRFI rate this season, and hasn’t given up a first inning run in five straight starts. That could easily continue today.

4. Mets vs. Cubs No Run First Inning (-135)

The Mets are in trouble. The New York team, once comfortably cruising to the postseason, is now in freefall. They’ve been scrambling over the past month and could well lose their spot to the surging Reds. That means all hands on deck, which typically leads to situations where the starter needs to come out strong.

They will start David Peterson (3.98 ERA) against Chicago. He has a solid arm, and is boasting an incredible 83 percent NRFI this year. That should be more than enough to keep a rather middling Cubs offense (14th in baseball) quiet for one inning.

To counter, the Cubs will go with Cade Horton (2.66 ERA). He’s a fantastic pitcher who’s only gotten better with each passing month. He has a 1.55 ERA over his last seven starts, and should easily carry that momentum into a scoreless first against a sliding Mets team.

All lines courtesy of DraftKings and Hard Rock Sportsbook