It’s a packed Tuesday across the MLB, with teams suiting up from coast to coast. There’s a lot of baseball to play. While many of those games will have runs scored in the first frame, plenty will be scoreless as well.
This article breaks down our favorite picks for contests with no runs in the first inning. It does so by looking at pitching matchups, and then explaining the reasoning and data behind each line.
1. Cubs vs. Braves No Run First Inning (-125)
The Braves continue to have one of the most disappointing seasons in baseball. They have plenty of talent on their roster, but have only failed to meet expectations this season. They take that failure into a game against the Cubs, who will start Cade Horton (2.78 ERA).
Horton is having a great year, especially in the first inning. He has a 74 percent NRFI rate on the season, and has held opponents scoreless during the first frame in nine straight starts. He has a habit of kicking games off in the right way, which should continue against a Braves team that doesn’t have much power at the plate.
The Braves will start Spencer Strider (4.97 ERA). While Strider has had a rough year, he’s only allowed four runs over his last two starts. He also goes into Tuesday on a five-game NRFI streak. That, combined with the Cubs averaging just 3.82 runs per game since August 10th (fourth worst in the league), means this one will likely start slow.
2. Brewers vs. Rangers No Run First Inning (-125)
The Brewers are the best team in baseball. They have strong bats, a powerful lineup, and continue to post one of the best averages in the game. That being said, they aren’t the strongest team in the first inning. Milwaukee has the third-highest NFRI rate in baseball (75.68 percent), as they usually need to warm up.
That should continue today against the Rangers Jack Leiter (3.74 ERA). The righty has had some weak spots this season, but through his last nine starts he’s only allowed more than two runs one time. He has a 2.66 ERA since July 21st, which bodes well against the slow-starting Brewers.
On the other side, the Brewers have an extremely strong pitching staff. Chad Patrick will get his 21st start of the season. He has a 2.25 first inning ERA this year, and should hold the Rangers’ 20th-ranked NRFI lineup scoreless for the first frame.
3. Cardinals vs. Mariners No Run First Inning (-115)
The Mariners are a team locked in a tight division race, while the Cardinals are desperately trying to claw their way into the wild card. Both teams want to win this one, but they are both candidates to go scoreless in the first as well.
George Kirby (4.47 ERA) takes the mound for Seattle. He’s been disappointing this season for the Mariners, but he’s much stronger in the first inning (3.79 ERA). The Cardinals are not the best hitting team, especially early. They go scoreless in the first frame during 77.24 percent of their games. That’s the second highest in the league.
On the other side, Matthew Liberatore gets the start for St. Louis. While his 4.15 ERA and 1.30 WHIP are not the most respectable stats, he’s much stronger in the first inning (3.46 ERA). The Mariners are a good team, but they do not score early at home. In fact, they post a 79.71 percent NRFI rate when batting at T-Mobile Park.
4. Mets vs. Phillies No Run First Inning (-120)
The Mets and Phillies are two strong teams with plenty of hitters in their lineup. Despite that, there are several factors that make this contest a strong NRFI candidate. The first is Sean Manea. The Mets pitcher has a high ERA (5.60) this season, but he starts off well before unraveling.
The left-hander posts a 1.77 ERA and 2.63 xFIP during his first time through the order. He’s also tossed scoreless first innings in six of his nine starts this year, including one against Philadelphia. That success could easily bleed over into today’s start.
From the Phillies side, they start Ranger Suarez (2.89 ERA). He’s having a phenomenal year and comes out of the gates strong. The lefty has a 0.72 ERA and 3.32 xFIP his first time through the lineup and has held opponents scoreless in the first inning during 21 of his 22 starts.
All lines courtesy of DraftKings and BetMGM.
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