The MLB train continues to roll down the tracks towards the postseason. Even so, there’s still over a week of action left, with many bets to be had. Today, we break down our favorite No Run First Inning (NRFI) ones around the league.
There are plenty of strong pitchers taking the mound today, which leads to plenty of strong opportunities. The following sections cover our most liked matchups and dives into the data behind each pick.
Our first game of the day kicks off in a battle of two strong teams. The Guardians have won nine of their last ten and are on a six-game win streak. The Tigers are one of the most complete rosters in baseball. Both of those factors should keep this game scoreless in the first frame.
Detroit will start ace Tarik Skubal on Thursday. The lefty continues his dominance this season, posting an incredible 2.26 ERA and 224 strikeouts over 183.1 innings pitched. He also starts out strong and should be able to get through the first frame untouched.
On the other side, the Guardians will roll with Tanner Bibee (4.44 ERA). Though Bibee is hardly the pitcher that Skubal is, he’s solid in the first inning. He has an 80 percent NRFI rate through his late ten, and should have no issues doing it again today.
This game is perhaps our favorite NRFI bet on the day. Not only do both teams struggle in first innings, but both pitchers do a good job early as well. This matchup pits the Mariners Luis Castillo (3.76 ERA) against the Royals Stephen Kolek (3.71 ERA).
Neither starter lights the world on fire, but they’ve been strong as of late. Castillo is coming off two one-run starts. He’s also a strikeout pitcher who could easily get the Royals to whiff early. In contrast, Kolek has given up just three runs and nine hits over his last two games as well.
Neither pitcher gives up many home runs, and they both should carry their momentum through a scoreless first frame. The Mariners also strikeout a lot, which keeps them off base the first time through the lineup. Though the Royals do like to score early, Castillo’s recent success could make up for it.
It may seem odd to take an NRFI bet in a game with the Brewers. However, while Milwaukee is one of the best teams in the league, they don’t start that hot. They are a complete team destined to win long contests, posting one of the highest NRFI rates (75.66 percent) in the MLB.
They take that percentage into a game against Yusei Kikuchi (4.08 ERA). While he’s struggled over the past few weeks, the ex-all star isn’t as bad his first time through a lineup. The Brewers then counter with Quinn Priester (3.25 ERA). The righty isn’t just a strong arm, acting as a critical part of the rotation, but he hasn’t given up a first inning run in any of his last five starts.
The Brewers also don’t score early at home, and struggle more against lefties.That, mixed with the fact that the Angels score the seventh-fewest runs in the majors, should keep this one quiet in the first.
This is a game where we like a scoreless first frame due to the pitching matchup. The Dodgers and Giants both desperately need wins to keep pace in their respective playoff races, and they do that by sending some of their best to the mound.
The Giants go with workhorse Logan Webb (3.34 ERA), while the Dodgers will start Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.66 ERA). Both starters have strong arms, and come out of the gates with their best stuff. Webb has a 3.19 first inning ERA and the Dodgers haven’t scored in the first over their last four games.
Yamamoto is great against San Francisco this season, giving up just one run over fourteen innings. He should continue that streak tonight and keep the Giants scoreless in the first, especially given his strong 70 percent NRFI rate on the season.
All lines courtesy of DraftKings.
+250
6.5
-105
+126
2.5
+100
+675
13.5
-110
-200
-4.5
-102
+176
4.0
-108
+230
5.5
-105
+265
7.0
-110
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