Baseball continues to speed towards the postseason. There are many teams playing for their playoff lives, as well as several just going through the motions. Either way, there are plenty of strong bets to be had.
This article covers both our favorite game picks and over/unders for today’s slate of games. We break down our reasoning for each one using statistics and data.
1. Brewers (-139) @ Rangers (+117), Over/Under 7.5
The Brewers are a great team on a two-game losing streak. They also go into Arlington to face one of the hottest squads in the MLB. While the Rangers are playing great baseball at the right time, they run into an incredibly tough pitching matchup on Wednesday.
Texas will start Merrill Kelly (3.16 ERA) against the equally talented Freddy Peralta (2.50 ERA). Both pitchers are extremely capable and can shut down opposing offenses. Peralta has a 1.46 ERA over his last seven starts, while Kelly has a 2.98.
Though Texas has the momentum, they post one of the worst team averages in all of baseball. They also don’t score a lot of runs. That’s a bad combination when facing a pitcher like Peralta. We like the Brewers bats to carry them in what should be a tight matchup.
This is a game with two strong starters. As such, we like the under in this one despite the fact that it’s quite low. Texas will likely struggle at the plate, even if the Brewers do not.
2. Nationals (+136) @ Marlins (-164), Over/Under 8.5
When looking at Wednesday’s slate, the Nationals are one of the best underdog candidates around. Washington has a worse record than Miami, and both teams have a lot of issues. The only difference is that the Nationals have much more momentum.
The Marlins have lost seven of their last ten. The Nationals have won seven in that same span. In addition, both teams are sending weaker pitchers to the mound. Washington will start Jake Irvin (5.71 ERA) against Eury Perez (4.66 ERA). While Perez has a slightly better ERA, the Nationals should have no issues covering that with their recent play.
Washington scores more than Miami, while the Marlins have a better team average overall. In a game where all the statistics are so close together, it’s often best to pick the hotter one. Right now, that’s the Nationals.
This is a game between two weak starting pitchers. Though neither team lights the world on fire offensively, they should both net enough runs to push past the line and hit the over.
3. Astros (+113) @ Blue Jays (-135), Over/Under 8.5
The Astros and Blue Jays are two teams locked in tight races for the postseason. They both have a lot to lose, and are looking to make one final push. Though the Astros have been much worse as of late, they could be a good upset pick over the Blue Jays.
On paper, Houston looks to be a big underdog in this game. They have a worse record than Toronto, are on a losing steak, and are on the road. Even so, they have a big advantage in the pitching matchup and can hit the ball quite well.
The Astros will send Jason Alexander (4.68 ERA) up against Jose Berrios (4.02 ERA). Berrios has been incredibly inconsistent, posting a 4.54 ERA over his last seven starts. Alexander’s ERA is 2.79 in that same span. He’s heating up and should deliver a strong start for Houston.
Both teams have plenty of hitters and know how to score runs. They can also take advantage of bullpens. Even if Alexander does a good job to kick things off, it’s hard to see this game not reaching the over.
4. Cardinals (+189) @ Mariners (-231), Over/Under 7.5
The Mariners host the Cardinals in what should be a big game for the favorites. Seattle is a strong team locked in an extremely tight division race. They’ve won four in a row and don’t look to slow down anytime soon. That’s why we like them so much.
Seattle will start Logan Gilbert (3.61) against the Cardinals Michael McGreevy (4.68 ERA). McGreevy has been up and down all year, which doesn’t bode well for the righty who goes up against a Seattle team who can score in various ways.
On the other side, the Cardinals are the bottom half in the league in both average and RBIs. They should struggle against Gilbert. That, combined with Seattle’s momentum, gives the home team a big edge in this one.
No matter how you cut it, 7.5 is a low line. Both pitchers have strengths and weaknesses, but there should be plenty of runs scored. Take the over here.
All lines courtesy of CBS Sports.
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