There are only a few days left in the regular MLB season, but that doesn’t stop the bets. The lines just keep on coming, and there are plenty that stand out from the pack.
This article analyzes our favorites on the day. It does that by going over each one, then breaking down the statistics and analytics behind the different picks.
This game might seem like an easy favorite pick, but there’s much more here than meets the eye. The Reds, despite their recent success, struggle against good pitching and can disappear in big moments. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is on a four game win-streak and enters the game with an incredibly talented pitcher.
Braxton Ashcraft (2.62 ERA) takes the mound for the black and yellow. He’s hurling some of his best stuff as of late, posting an incredible 1.88 ERA over his last seven starts. That doesn’t bode well for the Reds, who have the 20th ranked offense in baseball.
Cincinnati has more to play for, but their game against Paul Skenes showed they aren’t bullet proof. They send Nick Lodolo (3.44 ERA) to the mound. He has a strong arm, but his ERA is up to 3.79 over his last seven starts. That’s why we lean towards the underdog.
No matter who wins this contest, they aren’t going to do it with a lot of runs. The Pirates and Reds are both low scoring teams. Take the under.
While our first line is all about pitching, this game centers around the bats. The Marlins have had some decent success this season, but we like the Phillies much more in what should be a battle of two rather mediocre arms.
Miami plans to start Janson Junk (4.27 ERA) against Walker Buehler (5.13 ERA). Both pitchers have been incredibly inconsistent this season, and they each posted ERA’s well over four during their last seven starts.
While that’s good for both offenses, the Phillies capitalize on bad pitching more easily than Miami. Philadelphia has the second best average in baseball and scores the fourth most RBIs. That is well above the Marlins, who rank ninth and fifteenth. We expect the home team to score early and run away with the game.
With two mediocre arms taking the mound and Philadelphia's offensive prowess, this should be a high scoring contest. We like the over for that reason.
In what could easily be the tightest contest of the day, the Red Sox and Blue Jays continue to push for the postseason. Boston has much more to play for than Toronto, who has already clinched. They are also on a two-game winning streak, which pushes us towards the underdog.
Boston will send Brayan Bello (3.34 ERA) to the mound against the Blue Jays Louis Varland (3.10 ERA). While Varland seems to have a slight edge on paper, he’s not normally a starter and has a 7.71 ERA over his last fifteen games. That inexperience, mixed with the inconsistency, could easily allow Boston to tee-off and get some early runs.
The Blue Jays are the better hitting team, but Boston swings the lumber quite well too. In such close contests, we prefer going with the team with better pitching. For this game, that's Boston.
This contest has two strong offenses. While the pitchers could have solid starts, both teams have enough firepower to get people across the plate. This is a good over.
The Cubs are cruising through the end of the year with their eyes set on October. The Mets, in contrast, are deadlocked in a tight wild card race. That alone should push New York over the line. However, they have a big edge on the mound as well.
New York will start their ace Nolan McLean (1.27 ERA). While he hasn’t pitched a lot this season, posting just seven starts, he’s been incredible in that time. So much so that he should have no issues with the Cubs fourteenth ranked offense.
Though the Mets don’t light the world on fire at the plate (13th), they have enough bats to get to Cubs Shota Imanaga (3.37 ERA). He’s a decent pitcher, but also prone to giving up big hits at the wrong time. His ERA is also up to 3.77 over his last seven games. Those two factors will give New York the edge here.
With such strong starting pitchers, both teams might take a while to heat up (or not heat up at all). It’s unlikely that they both combine for enough runs to hit the line. We prefer the under.
All lines courtesy of CBS Sports
+100
1.0
-110
-115
-200
-3.5
-105
-112
-152
-3.0
-102
-112
-592
-10.5
-104
-108
+106
1.5
-110
-110
+154
3.5
-115
-108
-150
-3.0
-102
-105
+950
14.0
-105
-110
+320
7.5
-105
-115
+164
3.5
-110
-110
-218
-4.5
-105
-118
-450
-8.5
-108
-108
-350
-7.5
+100
-112
-1000
-13.5
-105
-115
+102
1.5
-110
-105
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