Every day we get closer to the end. The MLB regular season is almost over, but there are still quite a few games to go before everything shakes out. Each of those come with plenty of betting lines, but there are a few we like more than others.
In this article we cover our favorite game spreads on Wednesday, and then look at the over/under for each game. Each decision is backed up by statistics and various data.
1. Nationals (+157) @ Braves (-190), Over/Under 9
The Nationals and Braves are two teams going through the motions and counting down the days until the end of the season. Despite that, Atlanta is a much better team. They rank higher in hitting and pitching, which is why we like them to take this game.
Atlanta looks worse on the mound. They plan to start Bryce Elder (5.36 ERA) against Andrew Alvarez (2.84 ERA). While Alvarez looks better on paper, he’s much less experienced. The lefty has only started four games this year. If he hits a rocky patch he could get into trouble early.
On top of that, the Nationals have the worst bullpen in baseball. They are incredibly inconsistent at the best of times, which should give Atlanta the ability to bounce back even if Alvarez keeps them in check for a few innings. They also have a stronger offense, which should push them over the top.
This is a contest with one inexperienced pitcher and one weaker starter. Though both teams may struggle at the plate, the middling bullpens make us lean towards the over.
2. Pirates (-100) @ Reds (-120), Over/Under 7
Sometimes, it’s important to take the easy ones. The Pirates are one of the worst teams in baseball, while the Reds are on an absolute tear. Cincinnati has had an amazing month, which has catapulted them right into the middle of the wild card race. They aren’t just the better team, they have a lot more to play for right now.
The Pirates are set to start Paul Skenes (2.03 ERA), who continues to be one of the best arms in baseball. While the ace is always lights out, the Pirates will have to contend with the Reds Hunter Greene (2.74 ERA). Greene is also on a tear and should have no issues shutting down the Pirates lackluster hitting.
The difference in offensive prowess should give Cincinnati a slight edge in what could be a surprisingly close game. They don’t have the best bats, but they are much better at scoring than the Pirates. They have home field advantage as well.
While the Reds can score runs, both starters should have no trouble with the opposing bats. This has all the makings of a low scoring contest. We like the under.
3. Tigers (+105) @ Guardians (-124), Over/Under 7.5
Detroit slides in as our underdog pick of the day. While they have the deck stacked against them, mainly from their incredible collapse over the last two weeks, we like this pick for anyone looking to take a big payout on a day with many great favorites.
The Guardians will roll with Tanner Bibee (4.34 ERA), while the Tigers will start Jack Flaherty (4.60 ERA). Both pitchers are having up-and-down seasons, and that greatly favors Detroit. The Guardians are on a hot streak, but they are much worse at the plate than their opponent.
Detroit ranks 11th in RBIs and 16th in team average. The Guardians sit at 27 and 29, respectively. That’s a huge discrepancy that could give the Tigers the edge, especially if the game stays close.
This is a game of middling pitchers. Though the Guardians are not the best hitting team, the lack of star power on the mound pushes us to take the over in this one.
4. Red Sox (-141) @ Blue Jays (+118), Over/Under 7.5
The Red Sox are yet another favorite we like today. The Blue Jays have already punched their ticket to the post season, while Boston is holding onto an incredibly slim one-game lead in the wild card. That should make them more locked in.
Not only that, but Toronto has a big advantage on the mound. The Blue Jays will start Max Scherzer. The future hall of famer is having a down year. He’s posting a 5.06 ERA on the season and a 6.27 ERA in his last seven starts.
Boston counters with the much stronger Garrett Crochet (2.96 ERA). He’s a powerful lefty who should be able to keep the Blue Jays top ranked offense in check. If he does, Boston could run away with this one.
For a game with this much offense (first and fourth), 7.5 is an incredibly low line. We like the over, as both teams can score in a range of ways.
All lines courtesy of CBS Sports.
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