There’s a lot of games on the slate for what’s set to be a busy Monday for the MLB. It’s also a great day for underdogs. Out of all of the contests around the league, there are a few we like that stand out from the pack.
This guide covers our favorite picks for the day. There are three that we think could pay out in a big way, as well as a solid favorite. Each is explained in great detail below.
The Blue Jays kick things off as a solid under dog pick. The Reds may have home field advantage and a much better pitching situation, but the Blue Jays are simply too good of a team to not take the points here.
The reason we like Toronto is that they continue to be one of the best teams in the league. They sit atop their division and have the best team average in baseball. They are top ten in RBIs too. All of that creates a strong offense that can ruin any pitcher’s day.
The Reds counter the Canadian team with Hunter Greene (2.81 ERA). He’s had a great year and should out duel Chris Bassitt (4.14 ERA). While Greene has a better arm this season, we like the Blue Jays because they have a much more complete roster.
This is a game where we like the over. The Blue Jays should have no issue scoring, and Cincinnati can get runs across too. That combination will likely get the total score to nine.
This is a battle of strong arms. The Guardians are starting Parker Messick (0.66 ERA) against Red Sox ace Brayan Bello (2.99 ERA). However, we like the Red Sox a lot more in this one due to Boston’s consistency and Bello’s experience.
Messick has been great in his two starts on the season, but only having a pair of games under his belt it’s hard to tell if he’s going to continue that dominance. On the other side, Bello has gotten stronger as the season’s gone on and boasts an impressive 2.45 ERA in his last seven starts.
It’s also worth noting that the Red Sox are a much better hitting team than Cleveland. Boston ranks ninth and seventh in average and RBIs, while the Guardians sit at 30th and 29th. That alone gives the Red Sox a big edge.
As both pitchers can get hot early and shut down the opposing squad, this looks to be a low-scoring contest. We like the under in this one.
The Phillies and Brewers are two of the best teams in baseball. They’ve also both struggled as of late (5-5 in their last ten) and have had some inconsistency over the past week. That makes this pick a lot murkier than it first seems.
We like the Phillies here because of the pitching. While neither starter is particularly impressive, Philadelphia’s Taijuan Walker (3.63 ERA) is in a much better position than the Brewers’ Jacob Misiorowski (4.33 ERA). Misiorowski’s ERA is 6.18 over his last seven starts, while Walker’s sits at 3.43. That could give the Phillies an early lead.
In terms of hitting, Milwaukee has the second best team average in the league and ranks fifth in RBIs. The Phillies are third in average and tenth in RBIs. That’s close enough where Philadelphia should be able to win through their starter.
Both teams are strong hitting squads with plenty of power. That, combined with Misiorowski’s recent pitching woes, should push this one past the line and hit the over.
This is yet another game on the day where we like the underdog. The Rangers give a bigger payout than the Diamondbacks, mainly due to having a worse pitcher, but in games like this one it’s safe to go with the hot hand.
Texas is on a five-game winning streak, and has won eight of their last ten. They do not hit as well as Arizona, but they have a stronger record and find more ways to win. If this game is tight at any point, we like the team with more recent success.
In terms of pitching, the Diamondbacks will start Ryne Nelson (3.53 ERA) against Patrick Corbin (4.33 ERA). Nelson has been much stronger as of late than Corbin, but Corbin is coming off of a shut out as well. Both pitchers should do a decent job on the day.
The Diamondbacks and Rangers are not the strongest hitting teams, but the pitchers aren’t great in this one either. Still, 9.5 is a high line. We’ll take the under here.
All lines courtesy of CBS Sports
+100
1.0
-110
-115
-200
-3.5
-105
-112
-152
-3.0
-102
-112
-592
-10.5
-104
-108
+106
1.5
-110
-110
+154
3.5
-115
-108
-150
-3.0
-102
-105
+950
14.0
-105
-110
+320
7.5
-105
-115
+164
3.5
-110
-110
-218
-4.5
-105
-118
-450
-8.5
-108
-108
-350
-7.5
+100
-112
-1000
-13.5
-105
-115
+102
1.5
-110
-105
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