Every day in the MLB is different. Sometimes the betting lines are easy, sometimes they’re hard, and sometimes they favor certain teams. For Wednesday, it’s hard not to go with the favorites.
There are plenty of strong squads to like in today’s action. The following sections cover our four favorite choices, including the statistics and analysis behind each decision.
1. Braves (-131) @ Marlins (+111), Over/Under 8.5
The Braves and Marlins are two sub-.500 teams doing what they can to stay relevant going into the last month of the season. They each have plenty of issues, but when looking at the line we like the favorite because of their recent play. The Braves have won six of their last ten, while the Marlins have only won four.
Both pitchers are lackluster. The Braves will start Joey Wentz (5.25 ERA) against the Marlins Ryan Gusto (5.05 ERA). The pair give up plenty of hits. They also allow a lot of runs and, while Gusto gets more strikeouts, they can both get shelled.
As the pitching is so even, the Braves also get a nod for their hitting. While the Marlins have a better team average, Atlanta scores a lot more and ranks higher in home runs and RBIs. That raw power could be the difference here.
This is a game where the over is much more enticing than the under. The pitchers are not consistent, and have plenty of weak outings this year. Both teams should get to them early.
2. Padres (+115) @ Mariners (-136), Over/Under 8
This is one of the more interesting lines of the day. The Mariners and Padres are two strong squads playing for the postseason. They also go into this game matched up in various categories. Even so, Seattle gets the nod for several factors.
Not only do the Mariners have home field advantage, they are also sending Bryan Woo (2.94 ERA) to the mound against Yu Darvish (5.36 ERA). Darvish hasn’t been in control all year, while Woo is one of the best in the league. That alone gives the Mariners a big edge.
The Padres hit for average, but the Mariners also have a huge edge when it comes to offense. Seattle is ranked 12th in RBIs and 3rd in home runs. In contrast, San Diego ranks 23rd and 29th. The Mariners have too many advantages to ignore them here.
As Soo is pitching so well, and given Darvish’s pedigree, this is a game where we like the under. Eight runs is doable if both teams get hot, but it’s much more likely that one goes cold.
3. Phillies (+129) @ Mets (-154), Over/Under 8.5
The Phillies are one of the best teams in baseball. They have depth, pitching, and strong hitting. Still, the Mets are hot on their tail and should come out on top on Wednesday. That’s because of pitching over anything else.
Philadelphia sends Taijuan Walker (3.44 ERA) to the mound. He has a strong arm and has kept a consistent 3.29 ERA over the last seven starts. The Mets counter with Nolan Mclean. While Mclean only has two starts on the season, he has a 1.46 ERA in that time.
Mclean’s inexperience could get him into trouble if things don’t go smoothly early, but pitching tends to be the deciding factor in close games. If he has a strong start, and his stats suggest he will, it’s easy to take the Mets here.
As both pitchers are so capable, it’s likely one will have a strong start. If they do, it’s unlikely that this game reaches the over. This is a strong under pick, especially if Mclean comes out strong.
4. Cubs (-125) @ Giants (+106), Over/Under 8.5
Those looking for a good underdog in Wednesday’s action should go with the Cubs and Giants. While Chicago has undoubtedly had a better year than San Francisco, the Giants come into Wednesday’s game with a few things on their side.
First, San Francisco is in the middle of a three game winning streak. A little momentum goes a long way, especially for a team with home field advantage. They could get some extra power in this one.
On top of that, San Francisco faces a shaky Colin Rea (3.96 ERA), who has a 4.08 ERA over his last seven starts. Carson Whisenhunt (4.91 ERA) isn’t great either, but favorable conditions make this a solid pick for anyone looking to score big on a money line.
As this is another clash of two mediocre pitchers, it’s easy to see more than 8.5 runs being scored. We like the over here much more than the under.
All lines courtesy of CBS Sports.
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