The MLB playoffs are almost half over. Though a lot of teams have already entered their offseason break, the ones left provide plenty of action and betting opportunities.
In this guide we break down both game lines for today’s matchups. We also look at a player prop from each one, backing up our decision with data and statistics to explain why we like our picks.
1. Phillies (+112) @ Dodgers (-133), Over/Under 8
Though the Dodgers are at home and one of the strongest teams in the postseason, we like the road team today. The Phillies have their backs against the wall, which should cause their lineup to lock in, and they come into game four with a sizable pitching advantage.
Philadelphia sends Cristopher Sanchez (2.50 ERA) to the mound against Tyler Glasnow (3.19 ERA). While both pitchers have the ability to get outs, Sanchez has been quite special this season. He lasted 5.2 innings in game one, and recorded eight strikeouts.
That alone gives us confidence in the Phillies. The Dodgers have a much more complete lineup on paper, but Glasnow has also struggled under bright lights. He’s 2-6 in the postseason during his career. Philadelphia should be able to get plenty of big hits.
This is a game with two capable starting pitchers against two strong lineups. Playoff baseball is always odd, but we still like the under due to the strong arms taking the mound.
2. Milwaukee (-120) @ Cubs (+100), Over/Under 7
While the Cubs have had a strong season this year, the Brewers are our favorite pick on the day. Milwaukee is a much stronger team. They hit better, have more power, know how to win games, and, more importantly, are sending their ace to close things out.
Freddy Peralta (2.70 ERA) takes the mound against Matthew Boyd (3.21 ERA). Both pitchers can have good outings, but Boyd is posting a 5.40 ERA this postseason versus Peralta’s 3.18. That’s a large difference, especially against a team who can hit as well as the Brewers.
Milwaukee has the second highest team average this postseason. The Cubs rank sixth. It’s also worth noting that the Brewers are a very strong road team. All of that points to them shutting the door on Chicago today.
Though both pitchers are strong, seven is a very low over/under line. If the Brewers do come out swinging, we could see some offense, and the Cubs do have sluggers. We like the over in this one.
3. Cristopher Sanchez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-104)
Cristopher Sanchez has been one of the Phillies big surprises this season. The big lefty has been throwing heat all season, and has had no issues striking out opposing batters. While the Dodgers have a strong offense that puts the ball in play, 5.5 is a low line for a great arm.
Sanchez has had six or more strikeouts eight times in his last ten starts. He’s only on four day’s rest, but his K/9 rate in such starts is 9.9. His ERA is also lower (3.06 vs. 3.31) when getting back to the mound a day early.
He punched out eight Dodgers in game one, and did so with a strong 41 percent whiff rate. He also had a 63 percent whiff rate on his changeup. That combination shows he’s in control. The Phillies also used five pitchers yesterday, meaning Sanchez will likely have a longer leash.
4. Andrew Vaughn Over 0.5 RBI (+165)
Andrew Vaughn may not be the best hitter the Brewers have, but he’s been a reliable bat since being acquired from the White Sox. The righty has had a resurgence in Milwaukee, including a very strong streak against the Cubs. He has 11 RBIs in 10 games against Chicago this season, and we like him to continue that on Thursday.
Though he only flied out in his sole at-bat in Game three, he has home run power and gets to face Matthew Boyd tonight. That’s advantageous for Vaughn because he is much better against left-handed pitchers compared to righties.
The slugger is positing a .313/.389/.470 slash line when facing Southpaws this year. Add that to Milwaukee’s incredible 94-run differential in road games, and he has a good chance to knock someone over the plate with either a deep ball or timely hit.
All lines courtesy of FanDuel and CBS Sports.
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