The MLB playoff train never stops. There’s been plenty of exciting action around the league already, and Tuesday offers two more great games (and their lines).
In this article we go over the game pick for each playoff matchup, as well as our favorite player prop from each one. To do that, we look at the data, and then break it down to explain our reasoning.
1. Mariners (-135) @ Tigers (+114), Over/Under 7.5
The Mariners and Tigers appear to be pretty evenly matched teams so far this postseason. They both have plenty of talent on their roster, but they each have a few gaps in their lineups and pitching rotations as well. That being said, we like the favorite in this one.
The Mariners and Tigers have both hit pretty poorly in the playoffs, with team averages of .200 and .186 respectively. Not only that, but each struggling lineup goes into game three against a solid starter. That’s where the Mariners have the edge, and could take the game.
Detroit will start Jack Flaherty (4.64 ERA) against Logan Gilbert (3.44 ERA). Gilbert is coming off of a rough start, but he’s proven to be more consistent than Flaherty and has a 2.52 ERA in his last seven starts. That should give Seattle a cushion, which they could take advantage of as the game progresses.
With two strong starting pitchers up against two middling offenses, we like this to be a low scoring affair. The under seems to be the way to go here.
2. Blue Jays (+133) @ Yankees (-159), Over/Under 7.5
The Yankees might be trailing the Blue Jays so far in the post season, but we like New York to bounce back and take game three. That’s because, not only can their powerful offense spark at any time, but they go into the contest behind one of the best arms in their lineup.
New York starts Carlos Rodon (3.09 ERA) against the Blue Jays Shane Bieber (3.57 ERA). Both pitchers can do a good job of holding off opposing offenses, but Rodon has been much better as of late. While the Blue Jays are a stronger hitting team, a slight pitching edge is all New York needs.
The Yankees have home field advantage here. Their backs are also against the wall. They are in a win-or-go-home situation, and know they need to step up. That desperation, mixed with the pitching edge, could give them what they need to get back into the series.
A line of 7.5 seems low for these two offenses. Both the Yankees and Blue Jays have a ton of power up and down their roster. That’s why we like the over.
3. Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 Strikeouts vs. Tigers (-112)
As mentioned, the Tigers’ bats have struggled mightily in the playoffs. They aren’t hitting well and have struck out more than any other postseason team (59 times). That puts the ever-reliable Logan Gilbert into a great situation on Tuesday.
Gilbert knows how to get players to whiff. He always toes the line around six strikeouts, and clocked 173 on the season. Not only that, but he’s recording a 32.3 percent strikeout rate this year alongside a 15.5 percent swinging-strike rate. Those are career highs.
He’s also strong against Detroit. The righty has faced the Tigers twice this season, and has 19 strikeouts across 10.1 innings. His ability to blow by batters, combined with the Tigers strikeout rate, put him in a good position to hit the line.
4. Giancarlo Stanton to Hit a Home Run vs. Blue Jays (+250)
It wouldn’t be a Yankee game without a home run bet. New York continues to have one of the shortest stadium fences in baseball, which makes it a great park for players to go deep. There are several big bats in the lineup, but our favorite on Tuesday is Gaincarlo Stanton.
The big righty may have only had 24 home runs on the season (a lot of that due to injury), but he goes up against Shane Bieber today. While the Toronto starter has had a successful return from injury, he’s given up 2.95 home runs per nine innings and a .396 wOBA to righties.
Stanton is also great at home. He’s hit 15 of his home runs in New York this year, all while posting a .421 wOBA. He’s in great position to get one out, especially in a must-win game where the batters should be more locked in.
All lines courtesy of CBS Sports and FanDuel.
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