And then there were four. The MLB Playoffs have entered the conference series, and we are a few games away from the big show. Still, the bets don’t stop.
There are plenty of lines we like in each contest today. This article breaks down the spreads, over/unders, as well as player props from each one using data, analytics, and reasoning.
1. Mariners (+110) @ Blue Jays (-131), Over/Under +7.5
The Mariners are coming into their own at the right time. They already took game one of the series and now go into game two behind one of the best current arms in baseball. The squad will start Logan Gilbert, who’s posting an incredible 1.13 ERA in the postseason and a 2.52 ERA over his last seven starts.
He will take on Trey Yesavage (0.00 ERA), who’s only started one game this post season. While Yesavage did not give up a run, the rookie’s inexperience could be a big factor against a much stronger pitcher who’s gaining momentum at the right time. That discrepancy in the starters is a big reason we like the road team here.
The MLB postseason is all about momentum. Every year the teams that win or rise to the top are the ones that strike while the iron is hot. The Blue Jays are a strong hitting team, but the Mariners have the momentum. That should push them forward here.
This is a contest between a red-hot squad and the best hitting team in baseball. Even if the starters come out strong, 7.5 seems like a low line. We like the over.
2. Dodgers (-153) @ Brewers (+128), Over/Under 7.5
The Dodgers and Brewers are two powerhouses that play very similar baseball. The teams both have strong bats and rely on tight rotations with great starters to shut the door on opponents. While today’s game has all the makings of a close contest, we like the Dodgers for their pitching.
Los Angeles should have a huge advantage on the mound. The Brewers have yet to announce their starter, but whoever they put out has to go head-to-head against Blake Snell. He posted a 2.35 ERA during the regular season, and has a 1.38 ERA in the playoffs.
The Brewers are a great hitting team, but Snell is on fire. His strikeout ability can quiet their bats long enough for the bullpen to take over. If that happens, the Dodgers’ power should be able to get a few runs and give them a tough-fought win.
This is a playoff game between two teams with strong rotations. Both can hit, but 7.5 is a higher mark for the starter and bullpen quality. We like the under in this one.
3. Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 RBI (+152)
There are several hitting lines we like for the Mariners on Monday. Our favorite is Cal Raleigh. The strong catcher was Seattle’s most consistent hitter in the ALDS, hitting .381 with four RBIs. We like him to continue that hot streak for several reasons.
The first is consistency. Raleigh has recorded a hit in seven straight games and has knocked home plenty of runs during that time. He’s also had a lot of success at Rogers Centre (eight home runs and 1.195 OPS in 13 games) during his career.
On top of that, he’s still the powerhouse who hit 60 home runs in the regular season. The slugger is always a threat at the plate. He may not be the best contact hitter in baseball, but in a favorable park in a big game, he could easily get a hold of one.
4. Blake Snell Over 6.5 Strikeouts
We’ve already mentioned our love of Blake Snell in Monday’s matchup. He’s posting an incredibly low 1.38 ERA this postseason, and has gotten plenty of batters to whiff during that time. With momentum on his side, 6.5 strikeouts is more than doable.
Snell hasn’t had the lowest ERA against Milwaukee this season, but he’s recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of the three previous meetings. Even if he gives up a run or two, most of his outs should come from Ks.
The lefty has fanned batters all season. He ranked in the 95th percentile in chase rate, 96th in whiff rate, and 85th in strikeout rate on the year. He’s also recorded nine or more strikeouts in four of his past five starts.
All lines are courtesy of FanDuel and CBS Sports.
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