The regular season is in the rearview mirror. After a lot of jostling and pushing down the stretch, the MLB has finally made it to the postseason. There are four games to kick off the wild card round, and they each have plenty of bets.
In this guide we break down all of the lines for each game, the over/under, as well as why we like each pick. Those decisions are then backed up by statistics and data.
1. Tigers (-165) @ Guardians (+138), Over/Under 6
We begin our postseason picks with a favorite. The Guardians ended up taking the division right at the end of the season, but they go into Tuesday's contest with a pretty tough task. They need to take down one of the best pitchers in the game.
The Tigers will roll out Tarik Skubal (2.21 ERA). The ace is one of the strongest starters around, and he’s only gotten better down the stretch. He has a 1.47 ERA over his last seven starts, and should have no issue shutting down the Guardians’ 29th ranked offense.
Cleveland counters with Gavin Williams (3.06 ERA). He has a strong arm, and posted a 2.04 ERA over his last seven starts. However, the Tigers are a much better hitting team than the Guardians. Their bats, combined with their excellent starter, should give them enough juice to take game one.
This is a divisional playoff game with two strong starters. There should be some runs as the game goes on, but it’s hard to bet against the rotations. We like the under.
2. Padres (+109) @ Cubs (-129), Over/Under 7
The Padres and Cubs are two teams that seem pretty evenly matched. Both finished around the same record, have similar pitching capabilities, and rely on strong stars. Even so, we like the underdog in this one for two reasons.
First, the Padres go into the game with an advantage on the mound. San Diego will start Nick Pivetta (2.87 ERA) against the Cubs Matthew Boyd (3.21 ERA). Both pitchers are prone to strong starts, but Boyd’s ERA is 6.08 over his last seven games. He’s been incredibly inconsistent, which is a huge boost for San Diego.
On top of that, the Padres are the better hitting team. They are a top ten offense and rank seven spots higher for team average than the Cubs. The stronger bats, combined with the better starter, should give the visiting team the win here.
Seven is a low under. Though Pivetta could have a good outing, both of these teams should be able to get some runs across. We like the over in this one.
3. Red Sox (+115) @ Yankees (-136), Over/Under 7
Another battle of strong pitchers (and great rivals), the Red Sox travel to New York in what should be one of the most interesting games of the day. New York scores more than any team in baseball, which should power them to a win in their home opener.
The Red Sox kick off the series by sending Garrett Crochet (2.59 ERA) to the mound against Max Fried (2.86 ERA). Though it appears Boston has the edge there, Crochet’s ERA is up to 3.31 in his last seven games, while Fried’s is down to 1.55 in that same span.
That recent play suggests New York will have more opportunities to get big hits. In such situations, the Yankees tend to take full advantage. We expect their star power to take over at some point and enter the series with a victory.
Both starting pitchers can keep opposing defenses in check. Even so, seven is a low line for two of the best offenses in baseball. Go with the over here.
4. Reds (+167) @ Dodgers (-202), Over/Under 7
The last game of the day is a battle that takes place on the mound. The Dodgers and Reds are two teams who can hit the ball, but this one is going to come down to the starters.
Los Angeles will go with ace Blake Snell (2.35 ERA) against the Reds Hunter Greene (2.76 ERA). Both pitchers have been lights out down the stretch this season, and they should each continue that into the postseason. However, Snell has been a bit better as of late.
That slight edge could allow the Dodgers to get to an early lead. Los Angeles is also at home, and has much stronger bats than Cincinnati. That leads us to go with the favorite in this one, even if the game should be close.
This is a tight game of two very strong pitchers against two solid offenses. That dichotomy suggests it’s going to be a low scoring affair. That’s why we’re taking the under despite the potential for some big hits.
All lines courtesy of CBS Sports
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