Today’s baseball schedule is a smaller one than usual. Even so, there are a few exciting underdogs and strong favorites throughout the day. This article breaks down our favorites.
The following sections outline each of our most-liked game picks, as well as our choices for the over/under. They do that by analyzing the data and reasoning behind each contest.
The Mets take on the Phillies in a game of two favorites. New York and Philadelphia have both had solid seasons, and they continue to fight for playoff position heading into the postseason. That leads to an interesting contest where we like the Mets to come out on top.
While New York has a worse record, has been worse as of late, and lacks home field advantage, they have a much stronger pitcher in this one. They start Nolan McLean (1.37 ERA) up against the inconsistent Aaron Nola (6.78 ERA).
Nola has been even worse as of late (8.21 ERA over his last seven starts), which bodes quite well for a Mets offense that’s top ten in team average. They could easily get out to an early lead, especially if McLean keeps up his strong starts.
This is a game that could hit the over. Nola will likely give up a solid amount of runs and even if McLean locks the Phillies down, they always have the ability to do some damage in the later innings. That concoction could lead to a high-scoring affair.
The Rangers are one of the hottest teams in baseball, but it’s always tough to bet against Milwaukee. The Brewers continue to carve through the MLB, and they do so with stellar pitching and strong offense. Both of those are unlikely to slow down in Arlington.
The Rangers will start Jacob Latz (3.15 ERA) against Jose Quintana (3.72 ERA). Latz has been better as of late compared to Quintana, and the Rangers get to play at home. Even so, both teams are pretty evenly matched on the mound.
Where we like Milwaukee is in the hitting. The Brewers are the second best offense in baseball, while the Rangers rank in the bottom five. That difference alone could easily give the Brewers a big edge. When both pitchers are evenly matched, it’s typically a good idea to go with the team who can come up with hits in the clutch.
This is a game with two solid starting pitchers. The Rangers also aren’t the strongest hitting team. That combination means this could be a lower scoring contest. We like the under.
Our first underdog pick of the day, we like the Twins to take down the Angels on the road. Los Angeles has the home field advantage and a slightly better record, but they are close to Minnesota in most aspects.
The Twins have a better team average by five spots, while the Angels are five spots above Minnesota in RBIs. That evens out at the plate. For pitching, Los Angeles will start Caden Dana (4.91 ERA) against the Twins Simeon Woods Richardson (4.53 ERA).
Both starters have weak ERAs and could be in for a short day. Still, we like the Twins because of Woods Richardson’s experience. The righty has 18 starts this year, while Dana only has one. Things are much more likely to go south for the Angels starter.
This is a game with two weak pitchers, but two weaker offenses. Even if the pitchers don’t start strong, neither team gets a lot of runs. That makes us favor the under in this game.
The Diamondbacks and Giants are two nearly-deadlocked division rivals. They both have 72 wins, and they’ve each won seven of their last ten. Unfortunately for San Francisco, that’s where the comparison ends. The Diamondbacks have many advantages here.
The first is on the mound. Arizona will start Nabil Crismatt (2.41 ERA). He has been stellar in his few starts this season, and should continue his strong streak against a Giants lineup that has not been able to find any consistency (25th in average and 18th in RBIs).
On the flip side, the Giants will start Logan Webb (3.17 ERA). While Webb is also a strong pitcher in his own right, the Diamondbacks are a much stronger hitting team. They rank second in RBIs and 11th in average. That means, even in a tight pitching battle, they should find a way to come out on top.
For any matchup, 7.5 is a low number. Both starters are primed to have a good day, but some runs should be scored. We like going with the over for that reason.
All lines courtesy of CBS Sports
-175
-3.5
+100
+200
4.5
-102
-325
-7.0
-110
+350
7.5
-108
+340
8.0
-108
-150
-2.5
-115
+184
4.5
-108
+125
2.5
+100
+250
6.5
-105
+130
2.5
+100
+700
13.5
-108
-200
-4.5
-102
+175
4.0
-108
+230
5.5
-105
+265
7.0
-110
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