It’s a busy Wednesday for baseball across America. There are many games on the dockett, and they all come with interesting lines. Still, there are a few we like over the rest.
This is a good day for the favorites, with many of the top teams going into favorable situations. The following article beaks down such situations, and explains the statistics behind each of our picks.
1. Marlins (-136) @ Nationals (+115), Over/Under 9
Our first line comes from Washington, where the Marlins look to have a big advantage over their division rivals. Not only does Miami have a much stronger record than the Nationals, they also come out ahead in all relevant categories.
Miami is a better hitting team, ranking five spots higher in both RBIs and average, which allows them to better convert hits into runs. They also face a much easier pitcher. Washington plans to start Mitchell Parker. He has a 5.94 ERA on the year, and a 9.00 ERA over his last seven starts.
While the Marlins’ Eury Perez (4.04 ERA) has had his issues too, he’s a much more complete pitcher than Parker. That edge, mixed with the better hitting, should give the Marlins the win in this one.
This is a contest between two mediocre pitchers who have not been able to keep their control over the last few games. That should lead to plenty of runs. We like the over for that reason.
2. Orioles (+140) @ Padres (-167), Over/Under 8.5
This is a game that’s best to not overthink. The Orioles are a bottom feeder trying to finish out the season, while the Padres are a strong squad in a tight division race. On top of that, San Diego leads in both pitching and hitting.
Cade Provich (5.04 ERA) takes the mound for Baltimore, while the Padres counter with Nestor Cortes (5.06 ERA). Both pitchers appear similar, but Provich has a 4.93 ERA over his past seven starts. Cortes has a 3.75 ERA in that same time.
That recent success could easily translate to a solid game, especially when paired with the Padres strong bats. If they get to Provich early Baltimore could easily fall apart. It’s likely Cortes keeps the Orioles off the bases too.
Both pitchers tend to give up runs in this game. Even so, the Orioles are a poor hitting team. If Cortes hits a groove it could keep the total score down. We like the under here.
3. White Sox (+146) @ Twins (-176), Over/Under 8.5
The Twins and White Sox are two teams who have had disappointing seasons, and we think the underdog could steal this one. While Chicago is the weaker squad on paper, they have much more momentum. They’ve won three in a row, while the Twins have dropped seven of their last ten.
On top of that, the pitchers are quite even. Yoendrys Gomez (5.20 ERA) gets the start here for the White Sox against Zebby Matthews (5.06 ERA). Neither arm is particularly impressive, and either could have a short outing.
The White Sox are a slightly worse hitting team than the Twins. They are two spots down in team average as well as RBIs. Still, their recent success and Minnesota’s struggles could make this a good choice for those looking to hit on the underdog.
This is a game of weak hitters, and even weaker pitchers. That makes the 8.5 number attainable. Take the over in this one.
4. Angels (+155) @ Royals (-187), Over/Under 9
The Royals have faltered in recent games, but they are still miles ahead of the Angels. Los Angeles has many holes throughout its roster, and Kansas City should be able to take full advantage of all of them.
The Angels do score more runs than Kansas City (20th to 27th), but the Royals are eleven spots higher in team average. They will also start Ryan Bergert. The righty has a 2.67 ERA on the season, which should be more than enough to handle the Angels lineup.
The Angels counter with Caden Dana (7.50 ERA). He’s had a tough year, and the Royals should be able to put up plenty of hits against him early. Even if they don’t, Los Angeles’ bullpen has issues too.
Ryan Berget’s prowess, mixed with both teams’ weaker bats, should make this a rather low scoring affair. It’s unlikely both teams combine for nine total runs in this one.
All lines courtesy of CBS Sports
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