Today is a baseball-packed Friday with many games happening around the league. With those various contests come various betting opportunities. This article breaks down our four favorites.
In the following sections, we analyze several games, as well the over/under for each one. We then explain our picks, and the lines, using data, statistics, and history from around the league.
1. Athletics (-109) @ Pirates (-110), Over/Under 8.5
The Athletics and Pirates both head into Friday’s action as favorites. That may seem odd, given how both teams have had extremely disappointing seasons, but they are close in record and the Pirates enter with home field advantage.
Despite that, we like the Athletics to win this one. The A’s are not a great pitching team. Luis Severino will take the mound for the green and gold. He has a 4.82 ERA on the season and a 6-11 record. However, he’s been stronger as of late (3.79 ERA in his last seven starts) and the Pirates do not hit well.
Pittsburgh ranks 28th in team average and dead last in RBIs. The A’s, in contrast, are fourth in team average and 12th in RBIs. That is a big difference, and one that should push the visiting team over the finish line.
This is a game with weak pitchers and one solid hitting team. That means there should be plenty of runs scored. We like the over here.
2. Yankees (-120) @ Orioles (+100), Over/Under 9
The Yankees continue to be one of the best teams in the MLB, while the Orioles sit in dead last and have nothing to play for except the offseason. That gap doesn’t stop this game from being our first underdog pick of the day.
Though it’s easy to take the visitor based on names alone, the Yankees will go into Camden Yards and face Trevor Rogers (1.43 ERA). The lefty is one of the strongest pitchers in baseball. He only has sixteen starts this season, but no one has been able to figure him out in that time.
While the Orioles are a poor hitting team (24th in the MLB), they should be able to get some knocks against Yankees starter Will Warren (4.44 ERA). He’s quite inconsistent, which bodes well for the home team. If Rogers continues his dominance and the Orioles get some early hits, there’s no reason they can’t win this one.
The strong starting pitching, mixed with the Orioles streaky bats, could turn this into a low scoring affair. New York could always get hot, but the other factors push us to take the under here.
3. Padres (-169) @ White Sox (+140), Over/Under 8
The Padres and White Sox is one of the more straightforward games on the day. San Diego is a complete squad getting ready for the playoffs. The White Sox have one of the worst records in baseball alongside a roster full of holes. That’s why we love the favorite here.
In terms of pitching, Chicago sends Davis Martin (4.01 ERA) out against Dylan Cease (4.59 ERA). Martin has been better as of late, and he’s a better pitcher overall, but Cease has a much stronger team behind him. That could be the difference.
The White Sox rank 27th in the MLB in terms of team average and have one of the worst scoring offenses in the league. The Padres are on the other side (eighth in team average), which should give them enough runs to take this one.
This game has a rather low over/under for two weak starting pitchers. Both teams can hit the ball, especially against the bullpens. We like the over.
4. Phillies (+104) @ Diamondbacks (-124), Over/Under 9.5
Our second underdog pick of the day, the Phillies face down the Diamondbacks. Though the Diamondbacks send Ryne Nelson (3.34 ERA) up against the inconsistent Taijuan Walker (4.17 ERA), they are a much worse team with much less momentum.
The Phillies are on a hot streak and have won eight of their last ten. The Diamondbacks are just 5-5 in that time. Philadelphia finds ways to win, while Arizona still has many aspects to figure out that won’t be solved this season.
Another big factor here is the bullpens. Arizona has one of the worst relief staffs in baseball, while the Phillies are right in the middle. The Diamondbacks are a better hitting team than Philadelphia, but both teams can rake. As such, we like the visitor to end up on top.
This is another game with two weak starting pitchers. Both are up against top ten offenses. Even though the line is a bit higher, we like the over in this one.
All lines courtesy of CBS Sports.
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