It’s a new week of MLB action. There are nine games around the league on Monday, with many favorites and underdogs suiting up. With them come several bets we both like and don’t like.
This article covers our favorite lines by explaining our reasoning behind each one. To do that, we dive into the statistics, data, and matchups of each contest.
1. Cubs (-134) @ Pirates (+113), Over/Under 8
We kick off the day with one of our most liked favorites. The Pirates have some decent players (namely Paul Skenes) and can win games. However, they are a much worse team than the Cubs. Chicago is well rounded, pitches well, and has a lineup that can hit the ball.
All of that leads into a game that pits the Cubs’ Jameson Taillon (4.15 ERA) against the Pirates’ Braxton Ashcraft (2.47 ERA). Ashcraft is a lights out pitcher who has been strong as of late, while Taillon has had plenty of consistency issues. Still, the Pirates are a bad team who finds ways to lose.
Pittsburgh is 2-8 in their last ten contests. They are also bottom five in team average and dead last in the league in RBIs. Their bullpen is worse than Chicago’s as well. All of that should allow the Cubs to overcome Ashcraft.
Eight runs is not a high line, but with the Pirates strong starter and their weak bats this should be on the lower-scoring side of things. We like the under for that reason.
2. Yankees (-194) @ Twins (+161), Over/Under 8.5
The Yankees have not been the best team as of late, but they go into Minnesota with a lot on their side. The Twins are faltering (having won just three of their last ten) and trail New York in just about every relevant category. That’s why we believe they will lose.
New York is the best scoring team in baseball. They are also 12th in average. In contrast, Minnesota is 22nd in team average and 25th in RBIs. That is a huge discrepancy, and one the Yankees should be able to take full advantage of in today’s game.
That’s because they face off against Simeon Woods Richardson (4.58 ERA). The righty has had a very up-and-down season, which should allow the Yankees to score early and often. They counter with Carlos Rodon (3.11 ERA). He’s not the strongest starter, but should be enough to keep the Twins off of base.
This is a game with a team who scores a lot and a team that scores a little. Even so, New York’s bats are so hot right now that we like the over.
3. Reds (+105) @ Cardinals (-125), Over/Under 8.5
The Reds are our first underdog pick of the day. Cincinnati and the Cardinals have similar records, and are similar teams, but the Reds are giving up home field advantage. Even so, we like them because they have a stronger starter.
In tight games, pitching typically puts one team over the top. The Reds have Zack Littell (3.78 ERA) going up against Matthew Liberatore (4.35 ERA). Both pitchers have been shaky over their last few starts, but Liberatore is posting a 5.68 ERA during his last seven games.
That recent struggle should be enough for the Reds to get some early runs. Cincinnati is not the best hitting team, but they rank in the top half in both average and RBIs.
Even if neither of these teams hit particularly well, this is a game where there should be plenty of runs scored due to the starting pitchers and weak bullpens. We like the over this game.
4. Phillies (+113) @ Dodgers (-135), Over/Under 8.5
Our last line of the day is a battle of giants. The Phillies and Dodgers are both great teams having great seasons. Though the Dodgers are the favorite, we much prefer the Phillies here for several reasons.
The first is their starting pitcher. Ranger Suarez (2.77 ERA) takes the mound for Philadelphia against Emmet Sheehan. Both starters have enough juice for a good outing, but Suarez is much more capable of shutting down a strong lineup.
The Phillies also have plenty of momentum. They’ve won eight of their last ten, and are second in team average. The Dodgers do score more than Philadelphia, but that gap should be closed by the pitching.
This is a game between two teams with strong starters. Though they both can hit if given the opportunity, this should be a lower scoring game. Take the under for that reason.
All lines courtesy of CBS Sports.
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