Friday is always a big day for the MLB. There are a lot of games, plenty of action, and many bets to go around. While it can be hard to sift through all of them, we have some lines we really like.
The following sections cover our favorite bets on the day. To do that, we break down the matchups, the lines, as well as the reasoning and statistics behind each one.
1. Rays (+142) @ Cubs (-171), Over/Under 7.5
We kick the day off with one of our favorite bets. The Rays are a team with plenty of issues, while the Cubs are rolling into the postseason. Chicago is also on a two-game winning streak and has a huge advantage in the pitching matchup.
They will start Matthew Boyd (2.92 ERA) up against Shane Baz (4.94 ERA). Though Baz has had some moments this season, Boyd is a much more consistent arm overall. Baz’s ERA also ballooned up to 6.00 over his last seven starts, which doesn’t bode well when facing the fifth-highest scoring offense in the league.
The Cubs do not hit as well in terms of average, but they are a much better team who knows how to get people across the plate. That perfectly complements their pitching advantage to give them a big edge in this game.
Both the Rays and Cubs have strong offenses. While Boyd could have a good start, the under is low enough where we like the over here.
2. Orioles (+113) @ Blue Jays (-134), Over/Under 8
On paper, this game seems like a no-brainer. The Orioles are at the bottom of their division and one of the worst teams in baseball. The Blue Jays could easily win the AL East. Even so, this is a contest where we like taking the underdog if you’re looking for a sneaky play.
That’s because the Orioles will start Trevor Rogers. The lefty has been absolutely lights out this season, posting a 1.51 ERA and 0.87 WHIP on the year. He’s shut down every team that’s faced him, including a two-run outing against the Dodgers last week. That could be enough to put the Orioles on top.
Toronto counters with a strong arm of their own in Chris Bassitt (3.97 ERA). He’s not quite as dominant as Rogers, but can hold his own on the mound. Still, the Orioles ace, alongside the fact that they’ve won eight of their last ten, makes this our favorite underdog of the day.
Both starting pitchers are strong arms who bring a lot to the table. While one team needs to score to win, this could turn into a low-scoring affair. We like the under for that reason.
3. Diamondbacks (+110) @ Twins (-131), Over/Under 8.5
This is one of the more interesting lines in Friday’s action. The Diamondbacks are undoubtedly a stronger team than Minnesota. They have a much better record, better pitching, and rank higher in both RBIs and team average. However, the Twins are the favorite because of their starter.
They will run out Pablo Lopez, a tall righty who’s posting a 2.84 ERA and 1.08 WHIP on the year. He’s had plenty of strong outings and should have no issues outdueling the much less consistent Brandon Pfaadt (5.18 ERA).
The Twins are not the best hitting team. In fact, they rank in the bottom ten. Even so, Pfaadt cannot stay out of his own way and has only slipped throughout the season. If Lopez can keep the Diamondbacks’ bats quiet for the first part of the game, the Twins could easily take over.
We like the over in this one. Both teams have weaker bullpens and Pfaadt is much too inconsistent. Those factors suggest there should be quite a few runs scored.
4. Angels (+141) @ Mariners (-169), Over/Under 8
This is another game that’s best to not overthink. The Angels have surprised a few teams as of late, but the Mariners come into Friday’s contest on a five game win-streak and a much more well-rounded roster. They also lead Los Angeles in every relevant category.
Seattle ranks nine spots higher (20th vs. 29th) in team average and five spots higher (11th vs. 16th) in RBIs. That gives their bats a strong edge, which should allow them to get plenty of runs against Yusei Kikuchi (4.18 ERA). The lefty has had a rough year, and posted a 7.49 ERA over his last seven starts.
Seattle counters with Luis Castillo (3.85 ERA). He’s also been inconsistent (6.29 ERA over his last seven), but he’s still a stronger arm than Kikuchi. The Mariners are hotter, hit better, and have a good pitching advantage. We like the favorite in this one.
For two starting pitchers who have had so many issues as of late, eight feels like a low under. We like the over, especially since the Angels also have one of the worst bullpens in baseball.
All lines courtesy of CBS Sports
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