Wednesdays are a great day for baseball, and there are plenty of games occurring around the MLB. While many of the lines can be tricky to navigate, there are a few good bets to be found as well.
The following sections cover our favorite lines from around baseball today. Each one analyzes the spread, the pick we like, and the various reasons we favor one team over the other.
The Marlins are a team on the decline. Once a contender, they collapsed on both sides of the ball. They are 2-8 in their last ten games and have large holes in their lineup. It’s unlikely they correct things against the Cardinals on Wednesday.
We like St. Louis in this game due to the fact that, not only are the Cardinals a stronger team as of late, they also win the pitching war. St. Louis will send Andre Pallante to the mound. He’s not the strongest pitcher (5.04 ERA), but he faces a much shakier Sandy Alcantara (6.31 ERA).
The Marlins pitcher has not been able to find his groove this season. Add on Miami’s struggles, their poor hitting, and you get a contest where it’s easy to take the Cardinals.
This is a game that could easily reach the over. Even if the Cardinals and Marlins aren’t the best hitting teams in the league, the pitching is weak on both sides of the mound. In such situations it’s better to go with more runs rather than less.
The Yankees and Rays may be a more lopsided game on paper given their record discrepancies, but it’s a double favorite contest for a reason. Mainly, due to the pitching.
The Yankees have won four in a row and boast the eighth best team average in the league. They also have the second most RBIs in baseball. Despite that, this is a tough matchup against Rays’ ace Drew Rasmussen. The righty has a 2.60 ERA on the year, and has posted a 2.08 ERA over his last seven starts.
The Yankees get a lot of hits, but they can go cold as well. While it’s tough to pick the Rays when looking at New York’s record, strong pitching typically trumps strong hitting.
For a game like this one, the over doesn’t seem too high. While Rasmussen could hold off New York early, the Rays don’t have the best bullpen. They could also score plenty of runs against Cam Schlittler (3.94 ERA) as the innings go on.
The Athletics continue to go up-and-down, while the Twins are in a free fall (3-7 in their last ten). Both teams don’t have a lot going for them, especially this late in the season. However, this could be a good game for the underdog.
The reason we like the A’s comes down to their hitting. They send the mediocre J.T Ginn (5.04 ERA) against the equally weak Bailey Ober (5.15 ERA). Both pitchers give up plenty of runs, and Ober has been much worse lately than Ginn.
On top of that, the A’s are a better hitting team all around. They are 11th in RBIs compared to the Twins 22nd, and they have the fifth highest team average (the Twins are 24th). In a bad pitching game, the better hitting squad typically comes out on top.
Given both pitchers’ ERA, it’s easy to go with the over here. Nine runs is a lot in baseball, but much less so when both pitchers give up plenty of runs.
The Reds and Angels game is another example of a team with the better pitcher skewing the line. Though the Angels do have the defensive advantage of paper, they are worse in every other aspect. It’s best to not overthink this one.
The Angels send Yusei Kikuchi (3.52 ERA) up against Nick Martinez (4.73 ERA). Kikuchi is a strong pitcher normally, but he has a 5.05 ERA over his last seven games. Martinez, in contrast, has a 4.32 ERA in that span. That alone gives a slight nod to Cincinnati.
Looking at those numbers, along with the fact that the Angels have a worse record and the 25th team average in baseball, it's easy to take the Reds when going for a nice pay out.
This is a game where, despite the weak pitching, we like the under. Both teams will do a decent job of putting people on base, but they aren’t great hitting squads. This is likely going to be a lower scoring affair for at least one team.
All lines courtesy of CBS Sports
+225
5.5
-105
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