It’s a great day for a ball game, let's play thirteen. There are plenty of exciting games happening around the league this Monday, which leads to plenty of exciting bets.
This guide covers our favorite games, which lines we like the most, and the over/under for each one. All of the picks are then backed up by reasoning, statistics, and analysis.
1. Rays (+121) @ Guardians (-145), Over/Under 8
The Guardians are one of the coldest teams in baseball. They’ve lost eight of their last ten, are struggling at the plate, and can’t seem to find any sort of rhythm. That’s why we like the Rays here, especially when they come with such a strong payout.
Cleveland has home field advantage, and it’s the only plus they have here. The Rays are better at winning games, have more to play for, and are a stronger hitting team. They have an advantage on the mound as well.
They plan to start Ian Seymour. The lefty has had a rocky season, but he’s still maintaining a respectable 3.86 ERA. On the other hand, Tanner Bibee will start for Cleveland. He has a 4.62 ERA on the season, and a 5.31 ERA over his last seven starts. All signs point to the Rays.
This is a game where we prefer the over. Eight runs is a standard line, and both teams should be able to put up some runs against two rather weak pitchers.
2. Diamondbacks (+150) @ Brewers (-181), Over/Under 8
The Diamondbacks have had a solid season. They’re only a few games back of the wild card and have managed to stay relevant through a lot of adversity. Even so, they run into a juggernaut in this one.
The Brewers are the best team in baseball. They can hit, pitch, and play defense at all stages of the game. They have the mound advantage in this one too. They’ll send ace Brandon Woodruff (2.47 ERA) up against the much less reliable Eduardo Rodriguez (5.40 ERA).
Those statistics make this one of the easiest picks on the day. While it may be tempting to go with Arizona for the bigger payout, the Diamondbacks don’t have the pitching or firepower to keep up with the Brewers right now.
This is another over. Even if the Diamondbacks don’t score a lot of runs, they should get a few across the plate. That, along with the Brewers powerful offense, should be enough to reach more than eight total runs.
3. Padres (+111) @ Mariners (-131), Over/Under 8
The Padres and Mariners are two teams that appear quite similar on paper. They each have decent pitching, strong hitting, and enter this game with similar records. That makes this a tricky choice, but we strongly favor San Diego over the Mariners here.
The Padres have two key edges. First, they are the better hitting team. They rank higher in almost every metric except home runs. On top of that, they also have a slight pitching edge, which could be enough to tip the scales.
The Padres will start the shaky JP Sears (4.94 ERA). He’s had a down year, but he’ll be facing off against the even shakier Bryce Miller (5.87 ERA). Miller has a 7.44 ERA over his last seven games, which the strong hitting Padres should be able to lock in on.
This is a good over. Both pitchers are facing strong hitting teams (6th and 12th in RBIs), and they aren’t known for keeping the ball in the yard. Plenty of runs to be had here.
4. Tigers (-221) @ Athletics (+180), Over/Under 9
This is another game where it’s best not to overthink it. The Tigers are sitting at the top of their division and continue to be one of the best teams in baseball. The A’s are inconsistent, have poor pitching, and are sitting in dead last. That’s why we like the favorite.
The A’s are a strong hitting team. They are sixth in home runs, eleventh in RBIs, and seventh in team average. However, no amount of hitting can make up for poor pitching. That’s a big reason we’re going with Detroit.
The A’s send J.T Ginn (4.95 ERA) to the mound up against the ever-reliable Tarik Skubal (2.32 ERA). Skubal continues to be one of the best pitchers in the league and should have no problems keeping the A’s on their toes. It’s unlikely Ginn will keep up.
This is a game where we like the under. Skubal doesn’t give up a lot of runs, and while Ginn might give up a few it’s hard to see the total getting to nine with one team likely being shut down.
All lines courtesy of CBS Sports.
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