Polymarket could be back in the U.S. prediction market space as early as today
Industry analysts are projecting an October 7 U.S. launch for Polymarket
The company was cleared of any wrongoing following a CFTC-requested investigation into alleged reglatory violations
Polymarket will soon be back in business, offering event contracts in the U.S. prediction market. Legally, Polymarket is eligible to relaunch in the US market as early as today. However, industry insiders believe that the more likely launch date will be on October 7.
Polymarket began self-certifying event contracts in various markets, including
sports and elections. This is the final necessary step that must be taken for the company to launch its U.S. platform. CFTC regulations require that once a company files a certification, the agency has one business day to object. Without an objection, the market can be listed immediately.
The company, considered the industry leader in the prediction market space, was briefly banned from the US by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission following allegations that it had committed regulatory violations.
Polymarket was accused by the CFTC of accepting U.S. customers while not being licensed to operate a prediction market site in the U.S. While under investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice, Polymarket agreed that it would not operate in the U.S. That ban, which began in January 2022, lasted four years.
While the ban was in effect, not only was the company required to block American users in January 2022, but Polymarket was also required to pay a $1.4 million civil penalty for operating as an unregistered exchange and offering contracts on prohibited events.
Polymarket was cleared of any wrongdoing last month
On September 3, the CFTC announced that it was taking a "no-action" position following the DOJ investigation into Polymarket.
"The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Division of Market Oversight and the Division of Clearing and Risk ... announced they have taken a no-action position regarding swap data reporting and recordkeeping regulations for event contracts," the CFTC said in a statement at the time.
The ruling was in response to a request from QCX LLC, a designated contract market, and QC Clearing LLC, a derivatives clearing organization. Polymarket acquired that company earlier this year for a purchase price of $112 million.
This settlement cleared a path for Polymarket to re-enter the U.S. market through the QCX platform, since QCX is already a CFTC-licensed entity, holding a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license. QCX was granted a CFTC licence on July 9, just 12 days before the company was purchased by Polymarket.
Operating as a crypto-only site, another advantage that Polymarket gains from its acquisition of QCX is that the latter company does business transactions in US dollars.
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Polymarket is a prediction market powerhouse
Its reentry into the U.S. prediction market is a significant development for Polymarket and for American event contract players. Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, Polymarket is an American cryptocurrency-based prediction market, headquartered in Manhattan, New York.
Polymarket’s boast that it holds the status as the world’s leading prediction market isn’t some slick marketing claim. It’s a fact. A cursory check of the Polymarket site reveals thousands of potential trades to be made.
Polymaket users buy and sell shares on event outcomes. They can trade on the outcomes of real-world events. Contracts are offered in various areas such as politics, sports, and finance.
However, the company's four-year absence from the U.S. market means that Polymarket has some catching up to do. Kalshi has taken advantage of Polymarket's hiatus to become the leading provider of prediction markets in the U.S. Kalshi handles more than 66% of all transactions in the U.S. prediction market industry.
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