CFTC Green Lights PredictIt To Launch Prediction Market In US

Bob Duff

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Publish Date: 09/11/2025

Fact checked by: Collin

Key Points

PredictIt has been granted regulatory approval by the CFTC to operate a prediction market in the US
PredictIt is a not-for-profit platform that lets you trade solely on political events
The site was originally created by Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand

Commodity Futures Trading Commission

PredictIt is back in business as a prediction market site in the US. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has granted regulatory approval to the Washington, DC-based company to operate as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO).

Industry expectations are that the new exchange will be operational by October 2025.

The announcement of this approval was made by Aristotle, the company that services PredictIt.

“With more than a decade of experience operating PredictIt, we’re excited to bring that knowledge and community to a fully regulated marketplace," John Aristotle Phillips, CEO of Aristotle, said in a press release.

“Prediction markets help people understand the future, and this approval allows us to deliver the most robust and transparent version of that vision yet."

The company promised to deliver a new-look site upon its relaunch in the US market. "With these approvals, Aristotle will launch a new exchange designed to provide US traders with more diverse markets, deeper liquidity, and broader participation," it said in a statement.

PredictIt offers trades on political events

PredictIt has operated as a unique platform that allows you to trade only on political events. The process is similar to how you'd trade stocks. In this case, though, instead of buying shares in companies, you're buying shares in the outcomes of political events.

The most prominent event contracts offered are on the outcome of the US elections. These markets could be on races for President, seats in Congress, or state gubernatorial races.

Congressional actions are another market offering. Will a specific bill pass through Congress? Users can also make trades on political appointments, such as Supreme Court nominees and cabinet positions.

There are coverage offerings for international events. If a foreign nation is holding an election or there is a plebiscite (referendum) on a major issue such as Brexit, expect that there will be markets from PredictIt on these outcomes.

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This site began life as a not-for-profit

From the outset, PredictIt was a one-of-a-kind entry into the realm of prediction markets. The launch of PredictIt took place in 2014. It was a creation of Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand. Even though it pays out real money, the site was designed to operate as a not-for-profit educational project. Since the platform was a non-profit prediction market, PredictIt was granted permission by the CFTC to operate under a "No Action" letter, allowing it to function legally within specific guidelines.

Those restrictions included a strict limit on the maximum allowable amount for transactions and a continued commitment to maintain operations with a focus on academic research. At the time, the stated purpose of PredictIt was to facilitate research into the way markets forecast events.

The CFTC wound up revoking this exemption in 2022. A prolonged legal battle ensued between Aristotle and the CFTC. In 2023, an appeals court granted PredictIt the opportunity to maintain its operation while the case was ongoing.

In July 2025, Aristotle settled with the CFTC, reaching an agreement that allowed PredictIt to continue under the Prediction Market Research Consortium, a US-based not-for-profit organization.

The US prediction market is becoming a crowded place

Upon its re-entry into the arena, PredictIt will discover that there's a lot less elbow room in the US prediction market. Last week, the CFTC granted regulatory approval to prediction market giant Polymarket to operate in the US market.

Kalshi, Robinhood, Crypto.com, Railbird Exchange, Interactive Brokers, Ninja Traders, Manifold, and the Iowa Electronic Markets are among other sites operating in the US prediction market space.

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