At PromoGuy, we are here to help you make consistent profits from legal sports betting and casino offers. By using a proven method to evaluate potentially profitable bets, calculate the ideal bet size, and build a bankroll, we flip the advantage from the sportsbooks to ourselves.
In the long run, we will do our best to make you a profitable sports bettor! Let us do all the work for you - just follow along, bet according to your personal bankroll, and enjoy!
First things first: it is vital to have as many sportsbook apps as possible. It may feel like overkill, but being able to look at many different options for betting the same event is a huge advantage. Many of these apps have daily “boosts” and other promos, so be sure to stay up to date with the legal sportsbooks in your state! As of the time I’m writing this, I have a total of 12 different accounts in the state of Michigan and each of them have brought me a couple hundred dollars of profit at a minimum.
Most information is sent out daily on Twitter (@PromoGuyUS) and can be found here on our website. Along with daily picks on Twitter, we can be found on our new YouTube channel for more informational content. Sign up and subscribe so you never miss out on a single profitable bet!
In sports betting, there is an inherent disadvantage to the bettor. The sportsbook charges a small amount of commission on each bet, which is passed onto the customer in the form of “vig” or “juice”.
For example: Team A and Team B both have a 50% chance of winning a game. If betting were a fair endeavor, the sportsbook would pay even money (+100) for a winning bet on either team. However, in the United States, you often see a 50/50 game with odds of -110. This means that instead of winning even money on this bet, the sportsbook charges a 10% markup. This is how they make their money, and it’s what we aim to avoid by betting strictly odds boosts, promotion bets, and other +EV situations!
The first step to using promos and odds boosts to build a bankroll is to be able to determine how much to bet on a given game. Here’s a step-by-step process of how I find a potential play and figure out the ideal bet size, with an example from July 13, 2021 to demonstrate.
Let’s break down each step of the process individually:
Some odds boosts and promos are good – others are not. Instead of testing each and every boost with this method, I usually look for a few things:
Like I said before, sportsbooks charge “juice” or “vig” on each bet in order to make a profit. It’s in our best interest to find out exactly how much vig they are charging in order to learn the true probability of each outcome. I use the no-vig calculator on this site (note on OddsJam at the end). Use Pinnacle’s odds to calculate this – they’re the best book out there.
Once we know how likely it is for a bet to cash, we need to know how much to bet on it. Most promos are capped at $50, but it’s still useful to go through this process. For more info on the Kelly Criterion, here’s a link.
Using THIS site, now we plug in our numbers (Probability, Odds, Bankroll, and Adjusted Kelly). “Probability” is a decimal between 0 and 1, “Odds” is basically the moneyline odds of the bet, “Bankroll” used for these calculations is $1000, and “Adjusted Kelly” is always going to be 1.
Let’s do an example in order to demonstrate the process. The following is what I go through for every bet that is posted on Twitter. Instead of doing all of that yourself, we’ll do it for you! Follow along here: Twitter: @PromoGuyUS
Caesars (MI) has the AL to win the All Star Game boosted to +150 odds.
Step 1: Identify potentially profitable bet
Step 2: Find true probability of the bet winning
Going back to our “no vig” calculator, we plug in “106” and “-114” to see the actual odds for tonight’s game. We come up with the following numbers:
Since the AL is +106 to win, we see that based on a consensus of market odds, this bet is 47.68% likely to cash. Let’s move on to the final step (continued on next page).
Step 3: Use true probability (from Step 2) and the Kelly Criterion to determine optimal bet size
Moving over to the Kelly Criterion calculator, we plug in our true probability and other numbers. Since the bet is boosted to +150, our “odds” section needs to read “1.5”. Here’s what we get:
At the bottom, it says “Bet This Much”. The optimal bet sizing for the American League +150 to win tonight’s All Star Game is $128. Since we’re capped at $25 by Caesars, we max it out.
Update (July 28): The AL won the All Star Game, so we easily cashed the bet that I detailed above! Using this process, we can use math to take the risk out of sports betting and make a consistent profit. I rarely bet over $50 on a game and ended up profiting around $30,000 in 2021 (including casino promos that can be found on my twitter, @PromoGuyUS)! Working on a website as well - see “Daily Summary” posts each day on Twitter 🤝
Affiliate link for OddsJam: https://oddsjam.com/?via=PromoGuy
OddsJam is the best resource I’ve found for finding consensus odds on pretty much any sporting event. They also combine arbitrage opportunities into one convenient home page, along with doing all the calculations for you. Check it out through the link above ^